Hold it. I have 15 years of Arizona in my blood and a launch from Vandenberg is NOT within your realm.
I have 47 years of Arizona in my blood, and I am an amateur astronomer, I have seen many ionized clouds in PHX from launches at VAFB. They aren’t easy to see, very very low on the western horizon, but they happen, they often get reported in the paper. When they launch at sunset, you can see it in PHX. But, unless you have an unobstructed western view and the conditions are right, you won’t see it.
Photos from PHX of a launch.
http://members.cox.net/starscopes/space_sky/20050922_vandenberg_rocket_launch.html