Replies

All you conspiracy theorists can take off your tinfoil hats and stand down, now. Saganite conclusively identified it as INBOUND daily scheduled US Airways Flight 808 (AWE808) from Hawaii.

Not so fast. Ret. AF Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney appeared on the O'Reiley Factor last night and conclusively stated it was a missile launch, not an aircraft's contrail. He based his opinion on having viewed the entire, moving video, not on comparisons of still pictures taken from it and still pictures of contrails from aircraft. He stated it was clearly a missile launch because the object does an immediate course correction and then flies off on a predetermined path, something highly characteristic of missile launches, rather than the flight paths of aircraft.

I've read the article Saganite linked in his (hope you're a he) post. It only shows still pictures of contrails and does not indicate that its author compared the moving video of the present object with any other moving videos to reach his conclusion. The object's characteristic motion as a missile that's just been launched being the key to McInerney's well-informed professional opinion, a similar comparison needs to be made to refute that opinion. I've not seen any such comparison by an expert as well qualified as McInerney; hence, I accept his opinion that it was a missile.

The object has been identified as a regularly scheduled airline flight (AWE808) which follows that exact same incoming path -- every evening -- same time, same place.

~~~~~~~~~~~

If even an "expert" starts with a wrongly biased assumption, his conclusions are almost invariably wrong.

Bias: "It was a missile".
Bias: It didn't fall on land, so it was "outbound" (moving away from the viewer)
Bias: Whatever it was, it was outbound.

Basic Analytics

An aircraft in level flight (constant altitude) follows the curvature of the earth.
When inbound (moving toward the observer) an aircraft in level flight appears to be climbing -- on a curved trajectory.
When inbound (moving toward the observer) an aircraft in level flight at constant speed appears to be accelerating (until it passes the zenith [then it becomes "outgoing"}).

(I live east of DFW -- under its main east-bound flight path. I see this effect after sunset on every clear evening.)

~~~~~~~

Viewing an incoming object and assuming it is outgoing destroys any hope of a correct analysis -- even by an "expert".

By making an 180-degree error in direction, all those "experts" made 100% @$$es of theselves...

...and then there are the "true believers" who substitute wishful thinking for analytical thinking... (Those are the ones whose tinfoil hat also covers their eyes...)