I agree with everything you just wrote (although I would posit that absentee voters not having a “write-in” list isn’t such a terrible disadvantage for Murkowski, since such voters could look up how to spell her name when casting a ballot), and, as I posted before, I believe that there are valid reasons to be hopeful that Miller will get far more absentee votes than Murkowski will. But there’s a huge difference between saying that absentees will give Murkowski a (perhaps much) smaller percentage than what she got on election day and saying that she will get close to 0 absentees.
I agree with you too, and I appreciate your caution that I not get carried away.
As you say, it is possible that Murkowski will get some of those absentee ballots.
Forgot one more point: Miller is a veteran of our recent wars, and very many of the absentee ballots are military.