If 80% of the cost was born by the South then why was well over 90% of all tariff revenue collected in the North? In the year prior to the rebellion why did a single Northern port, New York City, collect 17 times as much in tariff revenue that did the busiest Southern port, New Orleans?
Some good articles on the Morrill Tariff...
You are aware that the Morrill tariff wasn't passed until after the South seceded aren't you?
It is quite possible that goods destined for the South were delivered by smaller coastal vessels after first clearing the custom house in NYC. This would be a decision of the ship owner and not necessarily the customer who's goods were subject to the tariff.
Do you have a breakdown of where the goods subject to the tariff ended up, or some other methodology?
Port of entry seems insufficient to determine who's ox was being gored by the tariff.