A bigger problem was the debt being amassed by the government. Here are some figures from an old post by PeaRidge:
1857 $28,701,000
1858 $44,913,000
1859 $58,498,000
1860 $64,844,000
From an old post of mine:
Congress added to the debt problem, or wanted to, in 1860-1861. From the remarks of a Representative Phelps speaking to the House on February 6, 1861 (Source: Congressional Globe; paragraph breaks mine):
Then the existing debt of the United States is nearly seventy million dollars. The $10,000,000 Treasury notes recently issued were negotiated, a portion at twelve percent, and a portion at between ten and eleven. Your ten percent Treasury notes were sold in the market of New York below par; and if you authorize new loans that are not absolutely necessary, you cannot negotiate them except at ruinous rates.
I have made a comparison of actual debt created and proposed to be created by this Congress. The balance of the loan authorized under the act of 22nd June, 1860 is $13,978,000. If the amendment of the Senate be concurred in, that loan cannot be negotiated. I am in favor of that amendment.
The tariff bill, which will probably become law [rb: it did], authorizes the loan of $21,000,000. The Pacific railroad bill as it passed the House authorized an indebtedness of $96,000,000, and the Senate has put on an additional $25,000,000. In other words, the proposed indebtedness of the country is $167,000,000 [actually the figures above add to $165,978,000]; making with the present public debt and the loan already authorized, an aggregate of $250,351,649. With such indebtedness, how can you expect to raise a loan on favorable terms?I gather a Pacific railroad bill didn't finally pass until 1862. I don't know whether the other new loans above came to pass. To make the figures balance, "the loan already authorized" that Phelps referred to must have been for $15,000,000.
This was enough to finance the government for a month and a half.
Over 90% of Federal revenue came from tariffs.
Tariff revenue from the imports of goods purchased with the proceeds of the sales of Southern cotton were about to cease.
Direct trade with Europe was about to produce millions of dollars annually that would not pass through Union custom houses.
The people of the North were about to experience a major downfall. That is why a number of state governors were pushing Lincoln to attack the South.