The KeyHouseRaces Election Night Open Thread

To make it easy to keep track of the Key House Races on our Master List as the polls close and the election results come in we have generated downloadable print-ready PDF and Excel versions of our Master List.

And we've added a couple of other items just for the fun of it: The PDF and Excel files include the following

The Master List in District Order
The Tier 2 List of races that didn't quite make it on to the Master List
The 4 Not Super-Safe Republican races
The KeyHouseRaces Longshot List - Races picked by some knowledgeable Freepers that might be big upsets
The KeyHouseRaces Nobody Saw This One Coming List for those races that aren't on any of our lists - just write them in yourself

Here are the links

All these files will print out on 4 sheets and look like this:

Election 2010

KeyHouseRaces Master List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner	Republican	Experts	District
AL	2	Incumbent D	Bobby Bright		Martha Roby	Toss-Up	AL	2
AR	1	Open D	Chad Causey		Rick Crawford	Leans R	AR	1
AR	2	Open D	Joyce Elliott		Tim Griffin	Leans R	AR	2
AZ	1	Incumbent D	Ann Kirkpatrick		Paul Gosar	Leans R	AZ	1
AZ	5	Incumbent D	Harold Mitchell		David Schweikert	Toss-Up	AZ	5
AZ	7	Incumbent D	Raúl Grijalva		Ruth McClung	Leans D	AZ	7
AZ	8	Incumbent D	Gabrielle Giffords		Jesse Kelly	Toss-Up	AZ	8
CA	3	Incumbent R	Ami Bera		Dan Lungren	Leans R	CA	3
CA	11	Incumbent D	Jerry McNerney		David Harmer	Toss-Up	CA	11
CA	20	Incumbent D	Jim Costa		Andy Vidak	Toss-Up	CA	20
CA	47	Incumbent D	Loretta Sanchez		Van Tran	Leans D	CA	47
CO	3	Incumbent D	John Salazar		Scott Tipton	Toss-Up	CO	3
CO	4	Incumbent D	Betsy Markey		Cory Gardner	Leans R	CO	4
CO	7	Incumbent D	Ed Perlmutter		Ryan Frazier	Likely D	CO	7
CT	4	Incumbent D	Jim Himes		Dan Debicella	Leans D	CT	4
CT	5	Incumbent D	Christopher Murphy		Sam Caligiuri	Leans D	CT	5
DE	AL	Open R	John Carney		Glen Urquhart	Leans D	DE	AL
FL	2	Incumbent D	Allen Boyd		Steve Southerland	Leans R	FL	2
FL	8	Incumbent D	Alan Grayson		Daniel Webster	Leans R	FL	8
FL	22	Incumbent D	Ron Klein		Allen West	Toss-Up	FL	22
FL	24	Incumbent D	Suzanne Kosmas		Sandy Adams	Leans R	FL	24
FL	25	Open R	Joe Garcia		David Rivera	Leans R	FL	25
GA	2	Incumbent D	Sanford Bishop		Mike Keown	Toss-Up	GA	2
GA	8	Incumbent D	Jim Marshall		Austin Scott	Leans R	GA	8
HI	1	Incumbent R	Colleen Hanabusa		Charles Djou	Toss-Up	HI	1
IA	1	Incumbent D	Bruce Braley		Ben Lange	Likely D	IA	1
IA	2	Incumbent D	Dave Loebsack		Marianneette Miller Meeks	Likely D	IA	2
IA	3	Incumbent D	Leonard Boswell		Brad Zaun	Leans D	IA	3
ID	1	Incumbent D	Walter Minnick		Raul Labrador	Toss-Up	ID	1
IL	8	Incumbent D	Melissa Bean		Joe Walsh	Likely D	IL	8
IL	10	Open R	Dan Seals		Bob Dold	Toss-Up	IL	10
IL	11	Incumbent D	Debbie Halvorson		Adam Kinzinger	Likely R	IL	11
IL	14	Incumbent D	Bill Foster		Randy Hultgren	Toss-Up	IL	14
IL	17	Incumbent D	Phil Hare		Bobby Schilling	Toss-Up	IL	17
IN	2	Incumbent D	Joe Donnelly		Jackie Walorski	Leans D	IN	2
IN	8	Open D	W. Trent Van Haaften		Dr. Larry Bucshon	Likely R	IN	8
IN	9	Incumbent D	Baron Hill		Todd Young	Toss-Up	IN	9
KS	3	Open D	Stephene Moore		Kevin Yoder	Likely R	KS	3
KY	6	Incumbent D	Ben Chandler		Andy Barr	Leans D	KY	6
LA	2	Incumbent R	Cedric Richmond		Joseph Cao	Leans D	LA	2
LA	3	Open D	Ravi Sangisetty		Jeff Landry	Likely R	LA	3
MA	4	Incumbent D	Barney Frank		Sean Bielat	Likely D	MA	4
MA	10	Open D	William Keating		Jeff Perry	Toss-Up	MA	10
MD	1	Incumbent D	Frank Kratovil		Andy Harris	Leans R	MD	1
KeyHouseRaces Master List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner	Republican	Experts	District
ME	1	Incumbent D	Chellie Pingree		Dean Scontras	Likely D	ME	1
MI	1	Open D	Gary McDowell		Dr. Daniel Benishek	Leans R	MI	1
MI	7	Incumbent D	Mark Schauer		Tim Walberg	Toss-Up	MI	7
MI	9	Incumbent D	Gary Peters		"Rocky" Raczowski	Leans D	MI	9
MN	1	Incumbent D	Tim Walz		Randy Demmer	Leans D	MN	1
MN	8	Incumbent D	Jim Oberstar		Chip Cravaack	Likely D	MN	8
MO	3	Incumbent D	Russ Carnahan		Ed Martin	Likely D	MO	3
MO	4	Incumbent D	Ike Skelton		Vicky Hartzler	Toss-Up	MO	4
MS	1	Incumbent D	Travis Childers		Alan Nunnelee	Toss-Up	MS	1
MS	4	Incumbent D	Gene Taylor		Steven Palazzo	Toss-Up	MS	4
NC	2	Incumbent D	Bob Etheridge		Renee Ellmers	Leans D	NC	2
NC	7	Incumbent D	Mike McIntyre		Ilario Pantano	Leans D	NC	7
NC	8	Incumbent D	Larry Kissell		Harold Johnson	Toss-Up	NC	8
NC	11	Incumbent D	Heath Shuler		Jeff Miller	Leans D	NC	4
ND	AL	Incumbent D	Earl Pomeroy		Rick Berg	Toss-Up	ND	AL
NH	1	Incumbent D	Carol Shea-Porter		Frank Guinta	Leans R	NH	1
NH	2	Open D	Annie Kuster		Charlie Bass	Toss-Up	NH	2
NJ	3	Incumbent D	John Adler		Jon Runyan	Toss-Up	NJ	3
NM	1	Incumbent D	Martin Heinrich		Jon Barela	Leans D	NM	1
NM	2	Incumbent D	Harry Teague		Steve Pearce	Leans R	NM	2
NV	3	Incumbent D	Dina Titus		Dr. Joe Heck	Leans R	NV	3
NY	1	Incumbent D	Tim Bishop		Randy Altschuler	Toss-Up	NY	1
NY	13	Incumbent D	Mike McMahon		Mike Grimm	Leans D	NY	13
NY	19	Incumbent D	John Hall		Nan Hayworth	Toss-Up	NY	19
NY	20	Incumbent D	Scott Murphy		Chris Gibson	Toss-Up	NY	20
NY	22	Incumbent D	Maurice Hinchey		George Phillips	Likely D	NY	22
NY	23	Incumbent D	Bill Owens		Matt Doheny	Toss-Up	NY	23
NY	24	Incumbent D	Mike Arcuri		Richard Hanna	Toss-Up	NY	24
NY	25	Incumbent D	Dan Maffei		Ann Marie Buerkle	Leans D	NY	25
NY	29	Open D	Mathew Zeller		Tom Reed	Likely R	NY	29
OH	1	Incumbent D	Steve Driehaus		Steve Chabot	Leans R	OH	1
OH	6	Incumbent D	Charlie Wilson		Bill Johnson	Toss-Up	OH	6
OH	13	Incumbent D	Betty Sutton		Tom Ganley	Likely D	OH	13
OH	15	Incumbent D	Mary Jo Kilroy		Steve Stivers	Likely R	OH	15
OH	16	Incumbent D	John Boccieri		Jim Renacci	Leans R	OH	16
OH	18	Incumbent D	Zach Space		Bob Gibbs	Toss-Up	OH	18
OR	5	Incumbent D	Kurt Schrader		Scott Bruun	Toss-Up	OR	5
PA	3	Incumbent D	Kathleen Dahlkemper		Mike Kelly	Leans R	PA	3
PA	4	Incumbent D	Jason Altmire		Keith Rothfus	Likely D	PA	4
PA	7	Open D	Bryan Lentz		Pat Meehan	Toss-Up	PA	7
PA	8	Incumbent D	Patrick Murphy		Mike Fitzpatrick	Toss-Up	PA	8
PA	10	Incumbent D	Chris Carney		Tom Marino	Toss-Up	PA	10
PA	11	Incumbent D	Paul Kanjorski		Lou Barletta	Toss-Up	PA	11
PA	12	Incumbent D	Mark Critz		Timothy Burns	Leans D	PA	12
PA	17	Incumbent D	Tim Holden		David Argall	Likely D	PA	17
RI	1	Open D	David Cicilline		John Loughlin	Leans D	RI	1
KeyHouseRaces Master List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner	Republican	Experts	District
SC	5	Incumbent D	John Spratt Jr.		Mick Mulvaney	Leans R	SC	5
SD	AL	Incumbent D	Stephanie Sandlin		Kristi Noem	Toss-Up	SD	AL
TN	4	Incumbent D	Lincoln Davis		Dr. Scott Desjarlais	Toss-Up	TN	4
TN	6	Open D	Brett Carter		Diane Black	Likely R	TN	6
TN	8	Open D	Roy Herron		Stephen Fincher	Likely R	TN	8
TX	17	Incumbent D	Chet Edwards		Bill Flores	Likely R	TX	17
TX	23	Incumbent D	Ciro Rodriguez		Quico Canseco	Toss-Up	TX	23
TX	27	Incumbent D	Solomon Ortiz		R. Blake Farenthold	Likely D	TX	27
VA	2	Incumbent D	Glenn Nye		Scott Rigell	Leans R	VA	2
VA	5	Incumbent D	Tom Perriello		Robert Hurt	Leans R	VA	5
VA	9	Incumbent D	Rick Boucher		Morgan Griffith	Leans D	VA	9
VA	11	Incumbent D	Gerald Connolly		Keith Fimian	Leans D	VA	11
WA	2	Incumbent D	Rick Larsen		John Koster	Leans D	WA	2
WA	3	Open D	Denny Heck		Jaime Herrera	Leans R	WA	3
WA	8	Incumbent R	Suzan DelBene		Dave Reichert	Leans R	WA	8
WI	3	Incumbent D	Ron Kind		Dan Kapanke	Leans D	WI	3
WI	7	Open D	Julie Lassa		Sean Duffy	Leans R	WI	7
WI	8	Incumbent D	Steve Kagen		Reid Ribble	Leans R	WI	8
WV	1	Open D	Mike Oliverio		David B. McKinley	Toss-Up	WV	1
WV	3	Incumbent D	Nick Rahall		"Spike" Maynard	Likely D	WV	3

KeyHouseRaces Tier 2 List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner	Republican	Experts	District
CA	18	Incumbent D	Dennis Cardoza		Mike Berryhill	Likely D	CA	18
KY	3	Incumbent D	Jon Yarmuth		Todd Lally	Likely D	KY	3
ME	2	Incumbent D	Mike Michaud		Jason Levesque	Likely D	ME	2
MI	15	Incumbent D	John Dingell		Rob Steele	Safe D	MI	15
NJ	12	Incumbent D	Rush Holt		Scott Sipprelle	Likely D	NJ	12
NM	3	Incumbent D	Ben Luján		Tom Mullins	Likely D	NM	3
OR	4	Incumbent D	Peter DeFazio		Art Robinson	Likely D	OR	4
WA	9	Incumbent D	Adam Smith		Dick Muri	Likely D	WA	9

KeyHouseRaces Not Super-Safe Republican List
		Seat	Democrat	Winner	Republican	Experts	District
MN	6	Incumbent R	Tarryl Clark		Michele Bachmann	Likely R	MN	6
FL	12	Open R	Lori Edwards		Dennis Ross	Likely R	FL	12
NE	2	Incumbent R	Tom White		Lee Terry	Likely R	NE	2
PA	6	Incumbent R	Manan Trivedi		Jim Gerlach	Likely R	PA	6

KeyHouseRaces Longshot List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner	Republican	Experts	District
CA	51	Incumbent D	Bob Filner		Nick Popaditch	Safe D	CA	51
GA	12	Incumbent D	John Barrow		Ray McKinney	Safe D	GA	12
IL	9	Incumbent D	Jan Schakowsky		Joel Pollak	Safe D	IL	9
IN	7	Incumbent D	Andre Carson		Marvin Scott	Safe D	IN	7
MA	6	Incumbent D	John Tierney		Bill Hudak	Safe D	MA	6
MD	2	Incumbent D	Dutch Ruppersberger		Marcelo Cardarelli	Safe D	MD	2
MD	3	Incumbent D	John Sarbanes		Jim Wilhelm	Safe D	MD	3
MD	5	Incumbent D	Steny Hoyer		Charles Lollar	Safe D	MD	5
MN	7	Incumbent D	Collin Peterson		Lee Byberg	Safe D	MN	7
MS	2	Incumbent D	Bennnie Thompson		Bill Marcy	Safe D	MS	2
NC	4	Incumbent D	David Price		B.J. Lawson	Safe D	NC	4
NC	13	Incumbent D	Brad Miller		Bill Randall	Safe D	NC	13
NJ	6	Incumbent D	Frank Pallone		Anna Little	Safe D	NJ	6
NY	2	Incumbent D	Steve Israel		John Gomez	Safe D	NY	2
NY	9	Incumbent D	Anthony Weiner		Bob Turner	Safe D	NY	9
NY	27	Incumbent D	Brian Higgins		Lenny Roberto	Safe D	NY	27
OH	10	Incumbent D	Dennis Kucinich		Peter Corrigan	Safe D	OH	10
OK	2	Incumbent D	Dan Boren		Charles Thompson	Safe D	OK	2
OR	1	Incumbent D	David Wu		Rob Cornilles	Safe D	OR	1
PA	13	Incumbent D	Allyson Schwartz		Dee Adcock	Safe D	PA	13
TN	5	Incumbent D	Jim Cooper		David Hall	Safe D	TN	5
TX	25	Incumbent D	Lloyd Doggett		Donna Campbell	Safe D	TX	25
TX	28	Incumbent D	Henry Cuellar		Bryan Underwood	Safe D	TX	28
TX	29	Incumbent D	Gene Green		Roy Morales	Safe D	TX	29
UT	2	Incumbent D	Jom Matheson		Morgan Philpot	Safe D	UT	2

KeyHouseRaces Nobody Saw This One Coming List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner	Republican	Experts	District

This is a nice score card. Let the leftist wailing and gnashing of teeth commence.

Bump

Great thread, IP. Thanks for posting it.

As always, great work. Thanks for the effort and for sharing it with us.

Great looking lay out.

Keeping my fingers crossed for an upset in NY 22nd....

Crunch time, BUMP.

Read ‘em and weep, Dims/commies.

How come you have OR 4 race (DeFazio/Robinson) race blank?

I’m getting nervous and excited all at the same time. Of course, I’m in California and I’m bracing myself for bad local results.

bump

Thanks for all your hard work.

I still have slight hope for Fiorina, but mostly I’m looking forward to hearing everyone else’s great results!

How come you have OR 4 race (DeFazio/Robinson) race blank?

Just a screw up on my part. Don't read anything into it. It should read Likely D. The PDF and Excel files are OK.

Excellent thread.

Here in Maine, we have Dean Scontras up against Chellie Pingree. I noticed that the “experts” saw Pingree, a liberal democrat who has described herself as being “to the left of Nancy Pelosi”, the expected winner. However, yesterday the Portland Press Herald had Scontras up by 5 points.

I am headed to his election headquarters in an hour or so.

It just goes to show how bad the California candidates are that they are having trouble beating Boxer and Jerry Brown.

Bookmark these links in the event FR crashes (heaven forbid):

http://twitter.com/keyhouseraces

and

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/freerepublic2/

Ping

PDF File

Excel 2003 File

Excel 2007 File