Posted on 10/31/2010 6:46:20 PM PDT by kristinn
PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.
The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
SNIP
Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans' current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Since early spring my "fantasy dream" has been a pickup of 130 seats, based on nothing but hope. I like your prediction! All I need to do is figure out where that 130th seat will come from.
Something like that, but we'll know Tuesday evening won't we.
What really worries me are the calls the for “powersharing” or some such that are sure to follow a wipeout of Dem seats. I’ve already seen reference to the fact that a Rebup sweep not being a “mandate” to repeal deathcare. I am just sick worrying that the media will send the Repubs cowering yet again. I can just hear the howling about the unfairness, the tyrrany against of all those poor people with no representation, how the rules must be changed to accommodate them and be sure Dens still have “a say.” Barf
You meant the Canadian Progressive Conservative Party.
If it is a blow-out in the House, the Senate will go GOP. If anything, the presumed tsunami is gathering speed, not lessening. Its time for the Democrats to stampede for the exits while they still can get out alive.
I can think of two people who can join that party. Meghan McCain and her father.
Yup. They were reduced that year to 2 seats in the House Of Commons. They were wiped out everywhere and Kim Campbell lost her seat.
In light of the raw data...at this point...though astonishing, you are quite correct.
of course, history is not destiny....just b/c the numbers have NEVER looked like this at this stage, doesn’t mean that they will turn out proportionally as they always have.
on the other hand....there is a pretty strong correlation to the numbers as they appear in the generic just before election day, and then what happens on election day. IF that continues and happens again on Tuesday, then we are looking at something cataclysmic for the D’s! I can hardly wait!!!!
Thank you! We can ‘practice’ now for Tuesday night. ;)
Will Michael appear when he loses (and whack his head off)?
This is the year to get rid of McCain!
Mine is chilling in the fridge as I post.
I suggest you do the same. :-)
Sounds like a weather forecast just before a last minute blizzard.
It's going to take quite a few elections to undo the mess that is facing us.
This time, I believe we've learned that we have to stay engaged.
In essence, it's up to us to give the Republican majority the courage of our convinctions...
Yes, but this doesn’t seem like a ‘real’ world anymore.
Play it again, Sam - such sweet music
Exactly! Now, the spin stops and the truth emerges!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.