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To: BigEdLB

To put this in perspective, a Delaware poll alleging the Coons leads by 10 has this breakdown as its survey assumption for likely voters:

Republicans 32%
Democrats 45%
Independents 21%

Moreover, the Delaware poll concedes that conservatives are about 2% more likely to vote than liberals.

Does any of that seem at all plausible?

no.

It is rather unlikely the democrats will have a 13% advantage in Delaware and even that raises great questions about why Dems win by 10 with such an assumption on who is voting.

data from:
SurveyUSA Election Poll #17323
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2010/SUSA_DE_Sen_1013.pdf


41 posted on 10/29/2010 4:23:45 PM PDT by lonestar67 (I remember when unemployment was 4.7 percent)
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To: lonestar67

“Does any of that seem at all plausible?”

You do realize you’re talking about a very liberal state whereas the Fox poll is about the nation as a whole? Based upon the margin that Obama won Deleware it is tied for the sixth most liberal state in the U.S.

As such: “Republicans 32%, Democrats 45%, Independents 21%” seems quite plausible to me. In fact by the estimate of FiveThirtyEight.com, there are 15 senate seats held by the Democrats that are more likely to go Republican than Deleware. Admittedly this isn’t just because the Democrats are dominating in the polls, but also because there are so many polls that the leads they show become more statistically significant.


42 posted on 10/29/2010 5:55:50 PM PDT by Moral Hazard (On November 3rd Daniel Webster is going to Disney World!)
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