I think your timetable is optimistic.
After 1945, nobody expected the Russians to make a bomb as fast as they did. Obviously, the Iranians have fewer skilled engineers than Russia did. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (nee Sabourjian) has an engineering PhD. but his expertise is in civil engineering, not nuclear physics.
Who outside of Varian Semi has the current ability to supply capacitors? Don’t answer this - Varian is known, but I haven’t had a reason to keep current on that technology. Built a drum machine in the 1970s with dual 4004s from Intel plus additional timing from Varian - design oddly looked a lot like Back to the Future tech - fun days, coding a 4004 for more than elevators.
I think it would be several years before any homegrown Iranian tech would be at that level. Israel has the ability, but I’m sure they aren’t sharing. Same for India. Don’t know the details of how Pakistan got there - don’t tell me.
The Iranians have a much different problem than we did with the quality of their ore. In 41-42 we went to Iran for uranium ore but it was so heavily contaminated with moly we didn't use it and instead found lots of good ore in Utah and Australia. Iran is stuck with it. The 1200 kilos of yellow cake from Nigeria also was full of moly, Iran an got really suckered on that deal.
Agreed, the capacitors are the key to lighting one off and they are very closely watched.
A big problem the Iranians have is the lack of really crispy inverters to give them dead steady DC to the centrifuges. Only one source in the world and they are locked down. The inverters they bought from Pakistan are long ago worn out.