If we ever reached the point of a civil war, the scenario you laid out would certainly be possible especially the secession by governors.
The only major logically problem I see is, culturally the difference is not between the North and the South or the East and the West. It is between the young and the old.
To explain: A few months ago, the Pew Research center did one of the biggest studies in their history about the demographics and beliefs of the 29-and-under crowd. With a median national age of roughly 35, this group will, within the next 6 years, be the majority as the older generation dies off day by day. I myself am (barely) a member of this generation.
Of these Americans, (the 29 and under crowd), almost 4 out of 10 are black, Hispanic or Asian, 65% believe that gay couples getting married and having children is either a "good thing" or "makes no difference" to society, 77% believe couples living together before marriage isn't a problem at all, and the list goes on and on and on.
The things that seem radical today are not radical to a significant portion of that younger generation. With the older people dying off (or at least getting older) each year, society is more likely to drift to where those things become the new "norm" just like no-fault divorce and single mothers are today.
Please do not misunderstand me. I'm not saying this is a good thing or desirable, I'm simply pointing out that short of - as you said - a specific event that causes an uprising, the slow, steady drumbeat of Father Time is more likely to transform society, just like it did for black people, women, child labor, etc. Looking at the sociological data, my guess is that no matter what happens on November 2nd, or in 2012, the real tipping point comes in 2016 or so when the Millennial generation has taken over as a majority of society.
With that, how could you have a civil war where battle lines must be drawn? It is likely that two fighting-age 19 year olds, one from Atlanta and one from San Francisco, are going to have more in common in terms of belief about society than they would with 40 year olds in their own city.
Put another way, the polling shows that "liberal" conservatives (how's that for an oxymoron?) like Meghan McCain are in almost 100% in line with their generation as a whole. Six years from now, that is the majority and the people who would fight it are one step closer to jello and reheated country fried steak at the nursing home. The fact that it is a drip-drip-drip like water is one of the reasons I think a civil war just couldn't happen. Once we tipped over so that group is the majority, the older folks that tried to start one would get a horrible awakening.
(Also, it's not all bad - this is also the most pro-life generation to have ever lived. Maybe it has to do with sonograms now being widespread?)
What are your thoughts? Do you not see it as a generational conflict? Is there anything I'm missing? If it were to ever happen, how would you see the battle lines drawn?
We will not be able to gauge any future scenarios with out the impact of ethno-generational conflict. Old white boomers with liberal tax and spend policies, cushy government jobs or union sinecures will not long be able to maintain crushing tax burdens on youthful blacks, browns, and asians without strong political sanction.
In demographic terms it is the mass of very religious and conservative whites that are maintaining their replacement birthrates while the europhillic liberals are imitating a dying Europe. Thus the native white population will find itself even more divided between the producers and consumers. "Going Galt" will become the sign of the times as folks decouple themselves from the grid (think homeschooling, buying gold & guns, self generation of power and other utilities and cashing out their businesses.
Soon there will be not enough young people or immigrants (legal or otherwise) to support the government ponzi schemes.
This along with the debt being monetized WILL cause a major incident like we have discussed. The generation component will come into play when young folks, ladened with crippling taxes, choked by regulation, see a privileged elder elite (I.e. the political/media/government classes) demanding even more sacrifice from them!!!
I also concur that there will be no geographic component like the last Civil War, but I shall state for the record that there are no red states or blue states. This is a Red Nation with a few blue enclaves and urban open sewers that will disgorge their poison once the system of bribes, corruption, social spending and identity politics collapses.
One thing WS, before others misunderstand our conversation or brand me as a racist, I am a patriot, a black man and a loyal citizen. I say these things to warn others and raise their awareness before it becomes too late to change things.
I will pick this up tomorrow.