That is always the case - companies get hit first when things go south and then lay off employees. Likewise, when things turn for the better, companies experience the uptick first and then, only after they are confident do they start hiring.
Going back through past recessions, unemployment typically didn’t peak until up to 18 months AFTER the recession ended. It is a lagging indicator. Always was and always will be.
My guess: In a year and a half, things will be significantly better regardless of what Washington does. Shipping and logistics show more goods are moving and the manufacturing index, which was supposed to fall, actually rose. Companies have the strongest balance sheets since they have since the mid-1950’s.
Part of the problem is people who lack a higher education and rely on physical labor for work WILL NOT see a recovery even when things are growing again because the growth is coming in areas like Silicon Valley and pharmaceuticals. We’ve reached the tipping point. If you don’t have rare skills that satisfy the market or you can’t build your own business to meet a demand, you’ll never be able to get above the poverty line.
The United States will NEVER be able to go back to a time when a guy could graduate high school, get married, have kids and earn a decent living right out of school. That was possible when most of the world was illiterate and couldn’t feed itself. Now, the 300 million Americans need to compete with 6.2 billion other people in the world. They don’t just get a free pass because we are American. If someone in China or India is better or cheaper at their job, they are going to get the contract. To think it is going to change given the structural constraints and relationships that have been developed over the past century is delusional.
The phrase “good job” will only exist for people who can do things like code CSS and PHP in seconds or a geologist who can help convert shale to energy. Software automation means that the only jobs available to people who don’t fall into categories like that will be asking, “Do you want fries with that?” People will either have to accept it or be willing to retrain themselves to meet the free market’s needs.
Man, you have drank the elitist Kool Aid. Wake up. The situation we are in is because of big government and because corporate welfare is available through politicians for sale to the highest bidder. Need a tax change to move operations overseas . . . okee dokee . . . thanks for the contribution. Get rid of those problems and we will be fine. There is always work to do . . . in a sane system.