Posted on 09/30/2010 9:14:12 AM PDT by Qbert
Democratic strategists have recently started experiencing a new feeling of optimism. There are indications, they say, that the party is showing the smallest signs of a turnaround, and that rumors of their electoral demise have been premature.
But instead of a comeback, Democrats are only experiencing the benefits of a base that is finally engaging. That base will help some Democratic candidates, but in total, the party still faces serious rehabilitation work with independent voters. The party's major problems are most evident in three prominent races that are slowly, but inexorably, sliding toward Republicans.
This week, Democrats confirmed what many were beginning to suspect -- that West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) faces a more difficult race for the state's open Senate seat than he once contemplated. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee purchased television time on Manchin's behalf, even though most surveys peg his approval rating north of 60 percent. But Manchin finds himself running neck and neck with businessman John Raese, who took just 34 percent of the vote when he ran for the seat in 2006. Manchin's problems are manifest in one individual: President Obama.
Obama took just 43 percent of the vote in West Virginia in 2008, and his popularity has only slid further. Republicans are using the same playbook against Manchin as they are against other Democrats, labeling him an Obama rubber stamp.
In a coal state that fears cap-and-trade legislation as a threat to an already teetering economy, that label is deadly. Manchin, who won re-election in 2008 with more than 70 percent of the vote, suddenly finds himself in serious jeopardy as Republicans build rhetorical bridges between him and the national Democratic Party. If those associations can hurt the popular Manchin, they can hurt lesser-known House members running their first re-election campaigns.
Democrats are increasingly concerned about Sen. Russell Feingold, D-Wis., whose poll numbers are rapidly turning south. Feingold has always run close races, but his reputation as an independent is a solid brand in a state that has a long history of electing progressives who don't always vote with their party.
This year, though, that reputation has been undermined. Voters no longer see the maverick they have elected for three terms; instead, Feingold is just another Democrat, one who voted for the mammoth stimulus package and for health care reform. Businessman Ron Johnson (R) has run ads focusing almost exclusively on labeling Feingold a career politician who voted in favor of runaway government spending. In this political climate, that has proven to be an effective message.
For the first time in recent memory, voters are telling pollsters they consider government spending a major concern. The Democrats' stimulus package has had an impact on the economy, but not one that the average American can see; unless the party is able to convince voters that the stimulus has worked, voters will punish the party in power, and incumbents like Feingold, for its excess spending.
In Connecticut, Republicans have long been bullish on former WWE executive Linda McMahon, who is spending millions of her own money running for an open seat being vacated by Sen. Christopher Dodd (D). McMahon once ran far behind state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but a Quinnipiac University survey out this week shows Blumenthal ahead by just 3 points.
That good news for the GOP comes despite voters' net negative impression of McMahon. Just 42 percent have a favorable impression of her, according to the Quinnipiac poll, while 43 percent see her unfavorably. More than half of Connecticut voters -- 51 percent -- still view Blumenthal favorably. In any other scenario, Blumenthal would be running away with this race.
But he's not, largely because voters are looking for change. Fully 1 in 3 voters said they are angry with the way the federal government works, while 43 percent called themselves dissatisfied. Voters who are angry with the government are breaking to McMahon by a nearly 4-to-1 margin. Democrats, Blumenthal included, have yet to find a way to deal with voter anger and adopt it for their own purposes.
The news isn't all bad for Democrats. Recent surveys suggest Sens. Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., have benefited from a newly enthusiastic base. Four straight surveys recently showed Murray has support from more than 50 percent of voters, while Republicans find themselves newly pessimistic about their chances in the Golden State.
But more Democrats' circumstances resemble those of Manchin, Feingold and Blumenthal. Most of those other Democrats are lesser-known and not as well-funded. Until they are able to find a way to distance themselves from an unpopular president, abhor and eschew the rampant spending that has voters concerned, and turn voter anger to their own benefit, the slow slide away from the Democratic Party will continue, negating any advantage the party might gain as its base engages.
“...Feingold has always run close races, but his reputation as an independent is a solid brand...”
WTF?! An Independent thinker, he is not!
So, you're just talking about his remaining an Indie and simply changing whom he caucuses with, not his party affiliation to GOP -- OK..got it. Plausible, but I still doubt he'd do it, because he's far left on everything but national security... but who knows? It'd be a "freebie," so to speak. Could you imagine (if McMahon wins) -- both CT senators with the GOP? Ah, sweet ironic justice.
Right -- the only "independent" streak Feingold has is the one that lies even further left of the Dem party line.
Yep, be sure to VOTE the PROGS OUT! The National Journal is another MFM RAG.....take whatever is written here with a large dose of salt.
Since about 1972.
Here in Iowa, it looks like we can vote after the worship service......................
http://amestrib.com/articles/2010/09/29/ames_tribune/news/doc4ca37f68a5950099539305.txt
Early voting starts in Tennessee on Oct 13th!
“Early voting starts in Tennessee on Oct 13th!”
Remember in Nov....er, mid-October!
You never know what life will throw your way, vote early if you can. Even should you get called Home your vote is still counted in Nov.
BTTT!
Thanks Qbert for the topic and thanks neverdem for the link.
“...largely because voters are looking for change. Fully 1 in 3 voters said they are angry with the way the federal government works, while 43 percent called themselves dissatisfied.”
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