That seems like a lot. What would that be? What are the numbers now, and what would the numbers be after a 200 vote swing.
I will say that Democrats are embarrassed. Not all. But embarrassed is the right word.
200 IS a lot. It is basically saying Toss up goes GOP and every leans Dem goes GOP... and the Dems keep only the SAFE seats.
It could happen. But it would be like Trenton in 1776. I do not see it happening. But I do not dismiss it.
The INTENSITY is the one thing no pollster can gauge. There is no model to determine that it exists. That is why every poll showed a TIGHT race 2% within the margin and 20% turnout.
Then POOF 28% 40% higher than expected and 11% sweep.
THAT is all it takes. Just 8% more people turning out to “vote the bums out” and ALL DEMS LOSE. And I mean Holocaust Political Genocide. 8% more intensity. And here is why...
60 days out from 1994... the GOP WAS NOT LEADING BY 10 on the generic ballot. They were DOWN. The didn’t cross the margin of error. Period. Never had a “real” lead.
This is unlike any model.