My guess,and its not as good as yours, you are on the scene,is that she will win and it will be close.
I think you're enough of a political junkee to make a pretty educated guess. And I'd tend to agree with the above, both in the primary and general.
I'm doing my darnedest to prepare to be disappointed, however. It's like any more all the things I thought were truth, justice and the American way have been swept under the rug for Blue Bloods who know better than us and their flackies so eager to keep them in power for just a bit of their sunbeam.
Whatever the case....let Castle win this thing and let his butt vote for anything to help the Dems, in this lame duck or regular session and hey, the country has been put on notice.