The states where Obama won by the widest margin in 2008 (excluding DC where he won 93% to 7% but which doesn’t get senators)
1) Hawaii: Obama 72%, McCain 27%, margin of 45%
2) Vermont: Obama 68%, McCain 31%, margin of 37%
3) Rhode Island: Obama 63%, McCain 35%, margin of 28%
4) New York: Obama 63%, McCain 36%, margin of 27%
5) Massachusetts: Obama 62%, McCain 36%, margin of 26%
6) (tie) Delaware, Maryland: Obama 62%, McCain 37%. margin of 25%
2008 Delaware at large congressional results: (R) Mike Castle 61.1%, (D) Karen Hartley-Nagle 38.0%, margin of 23.1 %
Current polling:
9/2 Rasmussen: (R) Mike Castle 48%, (D) Chris Coons 37%, margin of 11%
9/2 Rasmussen: (R) Christine O’Donnell 36%, (D) Chris Coons 47%, margin of -11%.
There’s no question who is more electable. Castle won by 23% in 2008 when the state went for Obama by 25%. He’s leading by 11 points in the only recent public poll, while O’Donnell is trailing by that same 11%.
While I would prefer that Delaware elected O’Donnell, the two candidates who have a chance are Castle and Coons, and I definitely would take Castle over Coons.
2008 is not 2010. Off year election. Completely different year. Completely different electorate will show up at the polls in 2010. There has been a sea change in attitudes EVERYWHERE. If this seat was a gimme for the Dems, then Beau Biden would have run for it. The fact that he did not and waited till 2014 suggests that he did not want to risk losing in what is going to be a very bad Democrat year.
The Dems know they are in for rough sledding and not just in Mississippi and in Alabama. Did Massachusetts and New Jersey establish anything? No Dem is safe ANYWHERE this year, ESPECIALLY a non-incumbent.
As I posted elsewhere, there was a July Rasmussen poll that had O’Donnell leading Coons and she can regain that lead. Coons is very far left, further left than Biden, and this is a bad year to be running as a hard leftist. If it were a good year, Barbara Boxer would be safely ahead in California and Patty Murray would have nothing to worry about in Washington. As it stand today, both will likely lose to conservative opponents.
There has been no campaign against Coons yet. He was supposed to be the sacrificial lamb to Castle. I think he has a lot of baggage that is going to bite him in the general. And Christine O’Donnell, in spite of some of the smear merchants, is a very good candidate.