Well, it’s Wednesday and I haven’t heard anything so I guess things didn’t work out.
I predicted 24% and it stands right now at 24.02%. I forgot about Leroy and Merabeth Higgenbotham down in Douglas or I would have been closer.
That’s enough gloating, I predicted the same outcome in March and April. This election was precast.
When the insurgent challenge became apparent McCain had to do two things. First he had to solidify his base and then he had to contain the insurgency. He had the time and the money to do both.
To do the first he had to mend fences with Romney. Mormons are the backbone of the Republican Party in Arizona. They are not the majority but they are effective and influential beyond their numbers. They are remarkably tolerant of other religions until they are slighted or one of their members attacked. McCain has always had a good relationship with them but he had run against Romney and there were the stories of bad blood. McCain needed to bring Romney in to quell the impression and to bolster his base.
There are around 25 percent of Republicans who are Anti-McCain no matter what. They have always been there. They were automatically in the insurgent camp. The question was: How much further would it go? How far into the ranks would they be able to influence votes? He had to put a cap on what was a result of the internecine wars in Maricopa County which had spilled out under the banner of a popular cause. This is what he needed Sarah Palin to do, to cap it.
Just from talking to people and my experience I guessed that the anti-McCain forces were around 45%, split between Hayworth and Deakins. That is a sizable figure and that is why you kept hearing the Palin ads. I doubt that she added more than a handful of votes to McCain’s total but she kept many from leaving and kept Hayworth from gaining traction. The question was as to how that 45% was split. I took an informed guess and that is where I got my 24%.
After the Romney appearance, the informal networks which are the Republican Party began to come to life, tentative at first but stronger each day, and the money began to flow. The negative ads reinforced this. The message was: McCain was an acceptable candidate, Hayworth was not. I could have saved McCain about $15 million. There are other audio and video clips out there from when Hayworth was a congressman. They don’t have the shock value of the Free Money Clips but they would have been damaging in their own right.
McCain was never going to lose this election. It just wasn’t anywhere in the cards. The only question was the margin of victory. He didn’t want to be like Goldwater, forever stained by a 5000 vote win in his last go-around. He was willing to spend the money to do it. And now it’s history.
Yes, you were right and I was wrong. Let’s just hope he realizes the only way he can save his legacy is by acting like a Conservative. He saw what it did for Jan Brewer...Plus the fact he hates Obama. We know his nasty side..let’s hope he lets it out against Obama in the next several years. What choice do we have?