Hayworth won by 57,000 votes in ’04 and lost by 8,000 in ’06. Those voters came out by the thousands to defeat Sailor boy, voting Hayworth to drive the point home. They stayed home by the thousands when it was Hayworth by his blustering lonesome.
If you are ever at a function with McCain in attendance, watch who he is surrounded by, who he greets by name, who he is comfortable with. First are the Mormons, who have been his constituents since ’82. Third are the ex-military who he courts and is relaxed with. The second group are the proprietorships and management class, mainly from North Phoenix, medical, real estate and financial. These are the same voters that abandoned Hayworth in ’06. A large segment of this type voter lean Republican but are unhappy with the party for one reason or another. They register Independent and do not concern themselves with party matters.
Forty percent of the independents are not going to vote in the primaries. There may be an uptick but nothing major. McCain will win with 20+, my guess around 24, with the upside belonging to McCain.. That’s just his solid base. An insurgency, any insurgency, is good for the party but they take a backseat to basic politics. If McCain was in trouble we would have seen Romney back. We didn’t.
You lie.
I’m going to hold on to this post of yours. Although it makes sense and is well thought out, I think you’re missing the big picture this year, and that’s the tea party movement that is bringing people out in droves...they will vote for JD (Or, I hate to say it, Deakins whom I loathe.) and they will vote in the primary. I hope I can come back on Wednesday and say, “I TOLD YOU SO!!!.”