I can’t find any polling numbers for this race, sorry. I did find this, however:
Governor
08/11/10 RATING CHANGE: Weak Kasich to Mod Kasich
08/08/10 Reuters/Ipsos Kasich 48% - Strickland 39%
08/02/10 Rasmussen Reports Kasich 45% Strickland 42%
This looks like a 9 point lead, and they call it a moderate rate change?