Its because he still holds 90% approval of the people of color.
I guess I understand why that is, but I doubt very much if they will get the vote out in 2012.
My guess is the television ads in states where there were primaries were in high gear this past week. Thus the sudden change in polls (huge swing in the last week.) The new Fed policy, the booing of the boy scouts, and the continued problems with Waters and Rangel will not help over the coming weeks.
We see -25 by September 1.
I think that they will get the FAKE vote out. And the bus in illegal vote out, and the dead vote out. And the intimidation block for real votes. They will try to get the election with the same old Chicago way.