Well don't blame Political Junkie Too for that 'mistake'. I'll take credit for that one. But it is worth noting that this series of 'mistakes' results in a predicted Republican gain of 30 seats in the House. That's pretty much the consensus these days among the political types. So PJToo seems to have 'stumbled' on the right answer. Just lucky I guess.
I'm curious. How would you estimate the number of Republicans seats we are going to have in January 2011?
And one more: What do you think the 'sampling techniques' are? We have 6 experts and 6 opinions. We average those opinions. These guys are reading polls and making their call. I see nothing wrong with averaging those inputs. Subjective IN - Subjective OUT. We're all guessing right now. These guys are simply sampling the polls and the gossip and the funding and the historical data and drawing their conclusions. I wouldn't call this a 'sampling technique'.
You’re a dingaling.
If I posted Ensemble averages of future global average temperatures, would you say “That’s pretty much the consensus these days among the climate types”? I don’t think so.
I have no idea what the right answer is. We’ll just have to see. If I were to “predict” the results today, I’d go back and see who has been the best in the past and go with them. That, by most people’s judgment here, is Rasmussen. If I were to average the best prediction with the worst, would you say that was a better answer? Would you say that was “right” answer and you “stumbled upon” it? Well you just did.
Are your “results” even statistically stable? Have you checked?
Remember, you invited me into your discussion and are trying to have the last word.