Your noted incumbent success does generally bode well for Zero but if we look at the factors behind the failure of both Carter and Bush I, there seem to be some parallels to the current situation. Probably the biggest one will be the tax issue that sunk Daddy Bush will have its match as the Sonny Bush tax cuts expire in the face of the “no raise in taxes if under $250k” campaign promise. Combine that with anger over Obamacare, voters are going to be active. There is also significant opportunity for a foreign policy SNAFU that would exceed Carter’s Iran hostage crisis.
I wasn’t around for Taft — may do a little research on that. Good post and you made an excellent point about incumbency in American politics.
Truman and LBJ would have lost had they run again.
Daddy Bush lost because Ross Perot split the vote and gave us Slick Willie..
Four: Hoover.