Posted on 07/07/2010 5:59:37 PM PDT by Pan_Yan
With just two weeks to go, it’s impossible to predict who will be in the GOP primary runoff, or whether there will be a Democratic runoff. Here are some of the issues emerging as the race heats up:
The Republicans
John Oxendine
While Oxendine has enjoyed name ID advantage during much of the campaign, he has lost some of that advantage because of what most experts believe have been comparatively poor TV ads. Unlike either Karen Handel or Nathan Deal, Oxendine has no strong, centralized geographical base.
Making it to a runoff remains largely in his hands. But as we continue to see evidence of a less-than-brisk turnout for the primary, having such a geographical base will be sorely needed, as will a robust appeal to longtime GOP voters.
With the establishment GOP dedicated to his defeat, Oxendine’s campaign simply must change its advertisings strategy. If it doesn’t, Oxendine could face the possibility of not even making a runoff.
Karen Handel
While Oxendine has been sinking a bit, Handel continues to rise. Her ascendance has come primarily in the metro Atlanta counties, closest to her base in north Fulton County. She has used sparse resources wisely, with a high-end direct mail piece that actually served to gain traction in a governor’s race, which normally doesn’t happen.
It will be interesting to see if and when Handel takes to TV, and if her presence on the airwaves would catapult her into an even stronger position, or whether it would have the apparent downbeat effect that Oxendine’s ads had.
Nathan Deal
He could be the shocker in this race. Deal has been hanging in close enough to the pack that a strong last minute TV ad blitz could present a strong and “gubernatorial” face to those interested voters that are looking for an alternative.
Eric Johnson
It takes more than a week-and-a-half to see the impact of a decent TV ad on a candidate’s fortunes. So we won’t know whether Johnson’s early media effort, combined with this latest round of sustained TV ads, will be enough to lift him into a runoff.
There is a general sense that the Johnson campaign has been too centered in areas outside of metro Atlanta. And his lack of a base of strong base makes his effort all that tougher.
Johnson would be wise to divide his ad campaign: One portion targeted to metro Atlanta – and most of his ad dollars to Atlanta TV – and a second portion with a more general message for rest of state.
Democrats
Roy Barnes continues to make use of TV commercials worthy of a big league general election campaign. His latest effort poked fun at various proposals that have drifted around the Gold Dome. It’s perhaps the best political ad of the season. For Barnes, there is only one question: Will Thurbert Baker’s strong and surprisingly sustained presence on TV appeal to enough African Americans to force Barnes into a runoff? For now, these improved Barnes ads cause one to wonder if primaries or runoffs even matter. Barnes is looking very strong – much like a governor.
I’m curious who the Tea Party and the NRA supports. Having a hard time finding any info on this. Not that I rely on their opinions, but, every little bit of info helps.
Thanks to all who have posted here. I’ve learned a lot from everyone.
Barnes? He’s a perfect example of what we are trying to eliminate. He’s a dog going back to his own vomit!
Oxendine is a crook. Always has been, always will be. My vote is for Handel.
If true that’s a little more damning than having a girlie voice.
What’s that supposed to mean ?
After watching the various videos, and bearing in mine William (not Bill) Nealey's Kayak books, I'm more afraid than ever of floodwater in close proximity to high-water bridges.
Handel.
I’m surprised that on Freerepublic no one from Georgia mentioned Ray McBerry. Check out this video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sU8-w0Xk_6A
He is a genuine States right candidate with a long history of advocating application of the 10th vs. Federal usurpation.
I’ve seen a few of his bumper stickers, but the article doesn’t even mention him.
That leaves Johnson, McBerry and Chapman. Of the three remaining Johnson seems to be the Georgia GOP insider. As State Senate Leader he must be pretty good at maneuvering the political waters. But I don't know how to weigh experience against a natural distrust of someone who has been in politics for 18 years.
McBerry is running a strong ‘states rights’ campaign. Let's face it, we need a governor who will stand up to Washington the next term and McBerry has taken up that banner. I like his ideas about getting rid of income and property taxes and going to a sales tax. But great ideas don't necessarily get passed by the legislature and I don't know if he has the clout to get things passed. I've seen many yards signs and heard some of his radio spots lately.
All I can tell you about Chapman is that he has a cool website. I like the fact that he is a small business owner, but McBerry and Johnson are as well. I'm not sure that positioning himself being against the good old boys would get help him get his agenda passed either.
Once again I appreciate the input and hope to get some more before I go vote.
Mcberry has displayed innappropriate behavoir with a minor and then lied about it.
http://swgapolitics.com/index/mcberry-saga-timeline/
I just found that out last night. The link in Post #51 is to the AJC article.
Good. We need to shout it from the rooftops.
His campaign seems odd to me. Who would run knowing they had those skeletons in their closet? And, there seems to be some seminar posters on his side, especially on this forum...
http://forum.gon.com/forumdisplay.php?s=&daysprune=-1&f=9
Who would vote for him knowing what he did?
Looks like Ray is damaged goods. Character counts...
And politically, the dems would eat him alive in a general election...
I am not 100% decided yet but I am leaning towards Nathan Deal.
I have a couple of problems with Deal. Congressmen do not historically make good chief executives. Deal was a democrat who jumped ship when the republicans took the house in 1995. He has been in Washington 17 years which to my mind makes pretty much anyone unfit for anything. He is also fleeing ethics investigations related to a company he is partners in that received some lucrative no-bid contracts from the state.
I am down to Chapman or Johnson by the process of elimination.
With only 4 more days left for me to make up my mind;
I could be swayed into the Eric Johnson camp.
I will have to spend more time this weekend studying the candidates further down the ballot.
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