See Posts 29 and 30.
I'll post the Tier-2 data for NC-02 in a bit.
In any case, here is the KeyHouseRaces Tier 2 List. These are the potential districts that are the best candidates for upgrade to the KeyHouseRaces Master List.
| District | Dem Primary Winner | R-Seats | Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | |||||
| Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | |||||||||
| CA | 23 | Lois Capps | Tom Watson | CA | 8-Jun | Safe D | CA | 23 | ||||
| CO | 7 | Ed Perlmulter | Ryan Frazier | Lang Sias | Jimmy Lakey | CO | 10-Aug | Safe D | CO | 7 | ||
| CT | 2 | Joe Courtney | Daria Novak | Matthew Daly | CT | 10-Aug | Safe D | CT | 2 | |||
| FL | 19 | Open (Wexler D) | Edward Lynch | Joe Budd | FL | 24-Aug | Safe D | FL | 19 | |||
| FL | 20 | Debbie Wasserman | Robert Lowry | Stephen Dworkowitz | Karen Harrington | FL | 24-Aug | Safe D | FL | 20 | ||
| IA | 2 | David Loebsack | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | IA | 8-Jun | Safe D | IA | 2 | ||||
| IL | 17 | Phil Hare | Bobby Schilling | IL | 2-Feb | Safe D | IL | 17 | ||||
| MA | 2 | Richard Neal | Jay Fleitman | Tom Wesley | MA | 14-Sep | Safe D | MA | 2 | |||
| MA | 5 | Nikki Tsongas | Jon Goinik | Sam Meas | MA | 14-Sep | Safe D | MA | 5 | |||
| MA | 6 | John Tierney | Bill Hudak | Rob McCarthy | Dave Sukoff | MA | 14-Sep | Safe D | MA | 6 | ||
| MD | 5 | Steny Hoyer | Collins Bailey | Jesse James Dann | Charles Lollar | MD | 14-Sep | Safe D | MD | 5 | ||
| ME | 2 | Mich Michaud | Jason Levesque | ME | 8-Jun | Safe D | ME | 2 | ||||
| NC | 2 | Bob Etheridge | Renee Ellmers | NC | 4-May | Likely D | NC | 2 | ||||
| NC | 4 | David Price | William Lawson | NC | 4-May | Safe D | NC | 4 | ||||
| NC | 11 | Heath Schuler | Jeff Miller | NC | 4-May | Likely D | NC | 11 | ||||
| NC | 13 | Brad Miller | Bill Randall | Bernie Reeves | Runoff 6/22 | NC | 4-May | Safe D | NC | 13 | ||
| NJ | 2 | Gary Stein | Incumbent | Frank LoBiondo | NJ | 8-Jun | Safe R | NJ | 2 | |||
| NJ | 6 | Frank Pallone | Anna Little | NJ | 8-Jun | Safe D | NJ | 6 | ||||
| PA | 13 | Allyson Schwartz | Dee Adock | PA | 18-May | Safe D | PA | 13 | ||||
| RI | 1 | Open (Patrick Kennedy D) | John Loughlin | RI | 14-Sep | Likely D | RI | 1 | ||||
| TN | 5 | Jim Cooper | Patrick Miranda | Lonnie Spivak | Jeff Hartline | TN | 5-Aug | Safe D | TN | 5 | ||
| TX | 25 | Lloyd Doggett | Dr. Donna Campbell | TX | 13-Apr | Safe D | TX | 25 | ||||
| VA | 8 | Jim Moran | Patrick Murray | VA | 8-Jun | Safe D | VA | 8 | ||||
| WV | 3 | Nick Rahall | Elliot "Spike" Maynard | WV | 11-May | Safe D | WV | 3 | ||||