Ankara's new assertiveness shifts balance of power

ft.com ^ | June 4, 2010

[Tailgunner Joe]

When supporters of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood demonstrated against Israel this week, they also celebrated their newfound hero: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister.

"Ya Teyeb Erdogan, lik menna Alf salam" (Erdogan, we send you a thousand salutes), they chanted.

In a new Middle East crisis in which the cast of characters unusually does not involve Arabs, Turkey's leading role - in backing the aid flotilla raided by Israeli commandos and demanding punishment of Israel - is boosting its popularity in the Arab world, and consolidating its status as a regional power.

For ordinary Arabs, particularly Islamists already impressed by the democratic rise of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development (AK) party, the Gaza aid flotilla has been a reminder of the weakness of their own governments.

Fearful of bolstering Hamas, the Islamist group that rules Gaza, pro-western Arab states have never seriously challenged the three-year blockade on the Palestinian territory.

Most embarrassed by this week's events was Egypt, whose own border with Gaza, though now temporarily open, is usually as firmly closed as Israel's.

Arab foreign ministers meeting in Cairo on Wednesday condemned the Gaza blockade and decided to lobby the United Nations for a resolution demanding the opening of the territory.

Turkey, meanwhile, has withdrawn its ambassador from Israel, cancelled joint military exercises and warned that ties will be normalised only when the Gaza siege is lifted. It also led the push for a denouncement of Israel at the UN Security Council.

"Today is a turning point in history," declared Mr Erdogan yesterday. "This bloody massacre by Israel on ships that were taking humanitarian aid to Gaza deserves every kind of curse." He added: "Turkey's hostility is as strong as its friendship is valuable."

Fahmi Howeidi, an Egyptian commentator, asked in yesterday's Shorouk newspaper: "How do we explain that the eyes of the Arab world were focused on the statements of . . . Erdogan . . . and nobody cared for or pinned any hope on the emergency meeting of the Arab League foreign ministers?"

The flotilla debacle comes at a time when Turkey has been asserting itself in the Middle East, improving ties with Syria and Iraq and seeking to mediate in regional crises.

Turkey was among the most vocal critics of Israel's assault on Gaza in late 2008. Last month, Mr Erdogan stood next to Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the Iranian president, to announce an agreement under which Tehran would export 1,200kg of low-enriched uranium in return for fuel for a civilian reactor. The Turkish leader hoped this would defuse the tension over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

But while Turkey's role has been welcomed by most Arab governments, largely because it has been viewed as a benign counterweight to the more radical interventions of Iran, the deal in Tehran and the row with Israel could raise a new concern: is Ankara aligning itself with hardline states such as Iran and Syria?

Turkish policies are already starting to worry Washington, which has tried to soften the backlash on Israel in the wake of the flotilla attack, backing an Israeli investigation rather than the international probe that Ankara is seeking. The US, moreover, was deeply annoyed by the Iranian fuel swap agreement, considering it an attempt to derail the push for UN sanctions against Tehran.

Abdulkhaleq Abdullah, a political science professor at Emirates University, says that perceptions of a radicalisation of Turkish policy should not be exaggerated. "It's not that the Turks are going radical, it's that the Israelis are doing everything possible to antagonise the Turks," he says. "Turkey is getting extremely popular and it's most welcome."

The balance of power is shifting, he says, with Egypt growing weaker and Turkey and Iran becoming regional heavyweights.

More criticism of Turkey's regional interventions is being heard in Turkish opposition circles, amid warnings that Ankara could end up with more enemies than friends.

In an assessment of Turkey's gains and losses from the flotilla incident, researchers at the US-based GlobalSource Partners warn that Ankara's recent attempts to shake the established order in the Middle East may carry consequences. They predict that Turkey's relations with pro-western Arab regimes will suffer and conclude that if Mr Erdogan persists in "spoiling western policy" he could soon become a liability to the west.

[ExtremeUnction]

In one nuclear strike Israel could destroy the Aswan dam, killing 90% of all Egyptions. The folks in the middle east should be careful what they wish for..

[Shermy]

It was a big dud for Erdogan, an embarrassment.

The only way he can save himself is to pull out the vague letter Obama sent him that could be interpreted to support the flotilla, like the letter Obama sent Brazil about the Iranian uranium deal, if such letter exists, which I bet is about a 50-50 chance.

[Shermy]

“The folks in the middle east should be careful what they wish for..”

Most Arabs and Israelis are united on the issue of not wanting Gaza. This article is a little misleading. Egypt’s blockade is near complete. And they always open the border for a day or two when this king of thing happens. Then shut it again.

[Tailgunner Joe]

The article points out that the Arabs are embarrassed by the fact that the Turks seem to care about this more than any Arab country does.

Backdropped by British riot police officers, a pro-Palestinian supporter, holding a placard depicting Arab leaders, from left to right, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak, and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, stands on the road that leads to the Israeli embassy, in a protest against Israel, in central London, Monday May 31, 2010.

Backdropped by the Houses of Parliament in central London, a supporter of the Palestinians, holding a Turkish flag emblazoned with a picture of Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, marches during a protest against Israel in central London, Monday, May 31, 2010.

[Shermy]

The guy with the Ataturk flag really doesn't know what he is doing.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Helping to stir up trouble to save his butt?

Maybe Erdoğan, the Islamist AKP prime minister, knew that there would be "martyrs," knew that the Turkish public would be outraged, and -- thus -- thwart any ideas by the Army to remove the AKP from office because the public would be rallying behind Erdoğan for as long as there is turmoil.

.. or maybe the Army had no such plans and 1996 indeed will be the very last time that the Army saved the secular Republic of Turkey from the extremists.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

"Today is a turning point in history," declared Mr Erdogan yesterday. "This bloody massacre by Israel on ships that were taking humanitarian aid to Gaza deserves every kind of curse." He added: "Turkey's hostility is as strong as its friendship is valuable."

Nice. And Israel cooperates militarily with the Turkish military. Time to cut them off and let them join all the other Islamic hell-holes spewing hatred and going nowhere.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

RE: "let them join all the other Islamic hell-holes spewing hatred and going nowhere."

I am not sure Turkey is looking to ally with the Shi'a Islamic "Republic" of Iran.

I believe that Zaman (see linked article) is the AKP's (Erdoğan's) main press supporter.

Authoritative Turkish sources believe that if neighboring Iran acquires nuclear arms, there will definitely be a strong demand from within Turkey for the country to acquire the same weapons capabilities . . . But if the standoff [West v. Iran] is not resolved and Iran ends up possessing nuclear arms, Turkey will have no choice but to acquire similar weapons, contributing to a new and highly dangerous arms race in the region.

More..

"Official Turkish sources are of the belief that an Iran possessing nuclear arms will be disastrous not only for Turkey but also for the already volatile Middle Eastern region, which will turn into an area where countries will engage in a nuclear arms race.

"'Voices will increase tremendously in Turkey for the acquisition of nuclear arms as a means of deterrence against Iranian nuclear arms,' a Turkish diplomat said. . . .

"Turkey officially argues that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, this does not mean Turkey will follow suit. Turkey is part of NATO's nuclear umbrella and that is sufficient, Ankara argues.

"But behind closed doors, Turkey is highly concerned about nearby Iran possessing nuclear arms. So the possibility that Turkey will also acquire nuclear weapons is highly possible.

"Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ told the Habertürk daily last week that Iran having nuclear arms will be a development against Turkey and will affect the country. He, however, stopped short of going into details.

"The Turkish government's efforts to dissuade Iran from acquiring nuclear arms should also be interpreted as a reflection of Turkish concerns over Tehran's dangerous game."

[End quotes]

Are we sure that it's entirely Israel that is Turkey's "target" .. or does Shi'a Iran worry Turkey as it worries Saudi Arabia? Yes, I know that Iran and Turkey trade.

.. and yes, if the people vote for the AKP next year, the AKP will likely finish making Turkey into an "Islamic hell-hole."

IMO we can say the same -- if our elections 2010 and 2012 go badly we'll likely turn into a Marxist hell hole.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

Are we sure that it's entirely Israel that is Turkey's "target" .. or does Shi'a Iran worry Turkey as it worries Saudi Arabia?

I'm sure Iran does worry Turkey, especially the military. But the Turkish government is finding, as other Islam-ocracies have, that exploiting animosity and hatred for Israel is a great way to arouse nationalist passion and support and also to distract their people from Turkey's own problems.

[Bender2]

Gadzooks! Back when I was running the show in Egypt... there was peace and work for all!

[big'ol_freeper]

Uh, Bend......if I remember right the only thing you ran in Egypt,
besides your mouth, was the sanitation department.

[Bender2]

That's all you recall, big... 'cause you were my Honey Bucket Inspector & Official Taster back then.

[campaignPete R-CT]

glad to see your doing well, as shooting your mouth off is always seen as a sign of good health. Big ol’ is motivating me to stay on my diet.

Meanwhile, in CT, conservatism is not having a good year. There is apathy at the grassroots level. I suspect even when the day comes when we have a commie in the White House, the grassroots in CT will be indifferent.

I am looking to commisserate. Anyone?

[SevenofNine]

GOD Bender how old are you

Are you old as Methos of Highlander fame that dude was around since Ancient Egypt LOL!

[big'ol_freeper]

RE: "you were my Honey Bucket Inspector & Official Taster back then."

Oh yeah, I forgot I was working as director of new product
development for Lone Star beer then.

[Always Independent]

Turks are in bed with the Iranians on the Kurd problems.

[Bender2]

You can run me down all you want, big... but leave Lone Star Beer out of it!

Remember, I know where you are going to be next week... and down here, we still have bubbling anger from that salsa made in New York City!

[big'ol_freeper]

RE: "Remember, I know where you are going to be next week...and down here, we still have bubbling anger from that salsa made in New York City!"

They make salsa in New York City?

[Bender2]

Re: They make salsa in New York City?

Yep, they do! ;^)