I’d have to vote Bentley. I have voted against members of the James family every time they have been on the ballot starting in 1986. I don’t intend on breaking a long held tradition of mine now.
I tend to disagree with you at least on statewide races. The national climate is anti-Dem but at least right now, the state issue profile favors the Dems this year. Most of our Republican statewide incumbents have had/have ethical issues that swirl around them.
I think with corruption being a key issue the statewide races where they have competent candidates favors them, while the legislature definitely favors us because they control all of it.
And Sparks may have ran to the left of Davis, but it wasn’t on gun control, wasn’t on affirmative action, wasn’t on abortion. He ran to the left by running an Alabama economic populist campaign (which still are popular) against Davis’s detached BCA-liberal intellectual style. Sparks also doesn’t have a college education. That helps him immensely politically.
I’m sort of shocked by the Figures-Thomas race (thought Thomas had a better shot) but I can’t say I’m upset with the result. I may disagree with most everything Figures stands for but at least she won’t embarass the city.
Ivey was able to win the primary because of name recognition and because she had no real opponent. Also, the PACT vote was split between both parties in the primary.
The reason Ivey can’t win is because she is the Martha Coakley of Alabama. During the PACT meetings last year, even Folsom, who missed half of them and has in general looked like all his energy died, at least came off as sympathetic to PACT parents.
The general opinion of how Kay Ivey reacted (per PACTers) would use multiple derogatory cusswords towards her. She came off as aloof, detached from reality and totally unconcerned as all these working class Alabamians and good ole boys came before that committee begging and pleading for her to save the program.
There are around 40-60k pact contracts in the state I think. That could be worth as many as 250,000-300,000 votes in the general based parents, friends of parents, aunts, uncles, etc.
That PACT vote is going to be dead set against Ivey from the beginning and Paul Hubbert will be all to happy to funnel money to the PACT groups to run ads non-stop on Ivey. Simply put, we can’t claim Ivey. We can’t give her real support and we can’t make her a major part of our effort. If we throw in with her then that gives Hubbert and and the AEA a powerful weapon with which they can probably retain the legislature.
(*Disclaimer, I hold PACT contracts for all my kids so my views are clouded a bit by that, of course I can self-finance my kids education still if it goes broke, something most PACT contract holders can’t do and for many people, if PACT goes their kids don’t get a college education. That’s what makes it such a major issue in this state.)
I see Luther Strange knocked off Troy King, too. It’s just very hard to see the state turning back to the bad old days of Dems winning statewide offices. In the ‘80s, you could still have center-right guys winning Dem primaries, but not anymore. The state parties are becoming a reflection of the national, moving further and further left (up here in TN, there was expected to be a highly contested Dem Gubernatorial primary, but the Dems all dropped out except for the son of a prior Dem Governor, their collective conclusion is that the Dems simply can’t win the office this year). The GOP is moving to being the reflexive majority party, and only unless a statewide candidate is seriously flawed will they lose. That’s why I expect a near across-the-ballot sweep. If we don’t knock off Folsom, I don’t know what he thinks he’s going to do. He couldn’t win the Governorship. I just hope we at least claim the State Senate and strip him of his powers if he does manage to win again (like what the Dems did to Steve Windom).
BTW, your Coakley example, it’s well worth pointing out she is running again for reelection in MA, and apparently won’t even have a GOP opponent. Although AL is nowhere near as pro-GOP as MA is pro-Dem, I wouldn’t dismiss Ivey’s chances. Look at 2006 when even the most flawed of Dem incumbents got swept in, and 2010 might similarly sweep in or hold flawed GOP incumbents and challengers nationwide.
1. r B. Byrne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137,093 5. R. Moore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94,425
2. R. Bentley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123,321 6. J. Potts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,525
3. T. James . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123,181 7. C. Taylor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,585
4. B. Johnson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,289
Byrne is in the runoff with James/Bentley WAY too close to call for the other spot.
The runoff should be interesting. Turnout should be way down and both candidates need to get from the <30% range to over 50%. They need to pick up a lot of support.
It is good that Paul Hubbard failed to knock Byrne out of the race.