The oil on the surface, and the oil under the surface have to add up to the total flow out of the well, which is known.
If the oil "fractionates" and breaks up into smaller particles, this is a GOOD THING, because this gives a larger surface area for bacteria to munch on, and the longer the oil takes to REACH the surface, the better, because that gives time for the oil to be diluted by seawater.
All of the effects you appear to be quoting will be worse for shallow spills, given the same amount of oil.
Ok, how much is it and according to whom?
If the oil "fractionates" and breaks up into smaller particles, this is a GOOD THING
Oh? What chemicals does fractionation result in?