The next crash has started.
The DOW monthly Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% from the 2007 high to the 2009 low (11,246) has been tested and is failing miserably.
Yessir, I was watching and waiting for the 62 retrace also. Right on cue she is tanking. Amazing how it hits exactly. Never ceases to amaze me.
I agree. Long term technicals and valuations have not supported the recent run up. Short term technicals over the past couple of months have been sideways at best. Now we are seeing the market run out of “faith” in recovery and I see phase II of the retraction (dead cat bounce after math) starting with profit taking.
My current problems are:
1) My 401K does not allow a direct cash or commodities position
2) Technicals don’t seem to have identified a solid bottom yet. Like you said, 2009 low has already been blown through so what is next? I could make an argument for 9,000 as being the next support test but that is just chart gazing.
My current position is bonds. Yes I know ... but given the limited options available through my sucky 401k options .....
Could you please explain that for the “Certain Ethnic” people like me?