The mistake the analysts are making is not in underestimating how much the PLN is spending, but underestimating their ingenuity and adaptability in transposing all that cash into military might.
Or they can go to Jeff Head’s website for more info. Maybe the intel agencies aren’t give the analysts all the needed information in order to make a proper analysis. It’s also possible no one wants to stand up and tell it like it is for fear of losing their career.