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http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/The-state-of-play-in-the-House-88725462.html

The state of play in the House

By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
03/20/10 12:24 PM EDT

David Dayen at the left-wing Firedoglake website has been doing an excellent job of keeping track of the votes on the health care bill. His latest count, as I read him, is 202 committed yes votes, 206 committed no votes, 12 still undecided and 11 “Stupak votes”—Democrats like Bart Stupak (MI 1) who oppose the abortion provisions of the Senate bill. In Dayen’s view, Speaker Nancy Pelosi needs all 12 undecided votes plus 2 Stupak votes. No wonder that she was negotiating as late as this morning with Stupak—and it’s not a good sign for her that the negotiations have apparently broken down.

Here are the members in each of Dayen’s categories.

Undecided and voted no on House bill in November (4): Tanner (TN 8), Matheson (UT 2), Nye (VA 2), Baird (WA 3). Tanner and Baird are not running for reelection. Matheson’s brother was recently nominated for a federal judgeship; he appears to have fine credentials.

Undecided and voted yes on the House bill in November (8): Bean (IL 8), Foster (IL 14), Michaud (ME 2), Pomeroy (ND 1), Space (OH 18), Carney (PA 10), Kanjorski (PA 11), Ortiz (TX 27).

Stupak bloc (11): Berry (AR 1), Bishop (GA 2), Lipinski (IL 3), Costello (IL 12), Donnelly (IN 2), Stupak (MI 1), Driehaus (OH 1), Kaptur (OH 9), Dahlkemper (PA 3), Mollohan (WV 1), Rahall (WV 3).

Is it impossible for the Democratic leadership to get to the 216 yes votes needed for a majority? No. Sometimes a member can be persuaded to vote yes even if he or she has made a public commitment to vote no. Is it difficult for them to get to 216? It sure looks like it.