I hate to say it, but I think you're right. If they had an idea that they were going to lose the vote, Obama would WANT to get out of Dodge, and the trip would be the perfect cover for that. Change the subject of the loss, and escape all at the same time.
OTOH, Obama also went to Sweden (or wherever it was) to campaign for the Olympics. Clearly, his predictors aren't very accurate.
sadly, I DO think this is the case and my stomach has been in a KNOT all afternoon!