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To: pie_eater

This statement - like most other fiscal & monetary policy statements - requires careful parsing.

1. The dollar peg hasn’t been in place “since 2008” - it has been in place for a lot longer. However, what has been in place since 2008 is a freeze to the gradual & controlled yuan appreciation, a 20% appreciation vs the dollar that started in 2005.

2. It is estimated that if the yuan were to float freely it would have another 20% to rise. A complete removal of any peg would certainly be a shock, but the Chinese have been managing yuan appreciation (the functional equivalent of deliberately lowering the value of thier dollar reserves) for years before the crisis.

3. The Chinese may indeed allow the RMB to increase, but are very unlikely to allow free float. They are fundamentally a mercantilist county - communist in name only. Mercantilist coutries focus on internal social stability and economic growth by promoting exports - in this day & age, undervalued currency is the main economic mechanism for doing that.


8 posted on 03/08/2010 7:01:24 AM PST by sanchmo
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To: sanchmo

The chinese may have finally figured out that since oil is priced in dollars—whatever trade they lose because of a higher yuan —is made up for in reduced costs for oil.


10 posted on 03/08/2010 7:17:06 AM PST by ckilmer (Phi)
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