Nothing Lincoln did had to force the issue. The status quo worked more in the South's favor than in Lincoln's.
Only in the short term. The fundamental fact is that the South's largest states, containing most of its industry, had not seceded. And showed little indication that they intended to secede.
The free population of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas in 1860 was 2,556,789. Of Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia, 2,925,433. The border states, 2,707,560.
That's 2,556,789 free whites in slave states that had seceded, and 5,632,993 in slave states that had not. Where the slave states that had not seceded not only had 70% of the population, but 90% of the wealth, and 90% of the industry.
The South as it existed prior to Sumter would not have made a viable nation. The radicals in South Carolina knew that. And they knew that only war would get Virginia off the fence.
Lincoln may have secretly wanted war, he may have been trying to goad South Carolina into war. Doesn't matter. The South Carolina radicals needed war, and they didn't need goading.
Nice data-filled post.
Preaching to the choir on this, my friend. Davis wagered that a 15 state confederacy would beat the U.S. He badly underestimated his opponent. In the end he got an 11 state confederacy and lost.