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Lincoln’s intentions would have had no relevance, had the radicals in South Carolina not attacked Union troops.

Welcome to what has been termed a graduate seminar on the war. I apologize for the length of the reply below, but there are lots of things to convey about what was going on.

"The aggressor in war is not the first who uses force, but the first who renders force necessary" [Henry Hallam, The Constitutional History of England: From the Accession of Henry VII to the Death of George II, New York: W. J. Widdleton, 1871, Vol. II, p. 219]

If you don't believe that, I hope you are not in charge of New York Harbor security when a large uninspected Iranian ship approaches the harbor.

I believe that Lincoln tried to provoke the South into attacking first. He tried to provoke them more than once and ultimately succeeded. As you will see below, key people involved on the Federal side recognized that Lincoln's actions would result in war. Lincoln was a very smart man, and he was also cunning and tricky. He would have made a good used car salesman.

Lincoln's inaugural

If you looked at the link to my old inaugural speech thread above, you'll notice that most Southern newspapers and Northern Democrat newspapers interpreted the speech as a declaration of war by Lincoln. How else did Lincoln expect them to react? Time would shortly prove them right. Naive readers of Lincoln's speech who think the speech peaceful are like the New York Times that said back then that the speech would "exert a very happy influence on public sentiment throughout the country." The Times with its tin ear and slant had no idea what it was talking about.

Lincoln's speech caused the Confederate Congress to authorize Jefferson Davis to call up 100,000 troops if he thought he needed them (he didn't call them all up until sometime after Fort Sumter). The South was hoping for a peaceful separation, but they had to protect themselves. They saw what was coming:

Latest from Montgomery

War considered Inevitable -- The Standing Army -- The War Strength

Montgomery, March 5 -- Since the receipt of the Inaugural address of Mr. Lincoln, it is universally conceded here that war between the Confederate States and the United States is inevitable. Mr. Benjamin said last night, that in his opinion, there would be a clash of Arms within thirty days.

Mr. Conrad concurred in this view of the aspect of affairs. The standing army of the Confederate States will be fixed at ten thousand men. Congress is now engaged in organizing the army. Of course, in case of hostilities, the number of men put in the field will be greater. It is calculated that the States now composing the Confederacy can place 80,000 on a movable war footing. [Source: Gazette and Sentinel, Plaquemine, Louisiana, March 9, 1861]

I've characterized Lincoln's speech as being like a demand that he wants to sleep with your wife, and if you acquiesce to this, there won't be any trouble. And if there is trouble about it, you will be the aggressor.

Lincoln's first hostile action to provoke war

Eight days after his inaugural speech, Lincoln in secret ordered the ship of war Brooklyn sitting in Pensacola Harbor to reinforce Fort Pickens with the troops it held. In January, the Southerners had negotiated a truce at Fort Pickens with the US Secretary of War and US Secretary of the Navy (and laid before Buchanan) that Fort Pickens would not be attacked by the South if it was not reinforced by the North. The Secretaries had documented the agreement in writing. [Source: Lincoln Takes Command by John Shipley Tilley, copyright 1941] Up until Lincoln's action, both sides had strictly obeyed the agreement to prevent a clash. A violation of this negotiated truce without warning was likely to start the shooting war.

Adam's opinion

Fortunately, the US naval captain in charge of forces in Pensacola Bay, Captain H. A. Adams, did not obey the order because it came from General Winfield Scott (at the instigation of Lincoln) rather than Adams' superior in the Navy. Adams replied to Washington that:

While I can not take on myself under such insufficient authority as General Scott's order the fearful responsibility of an act which seems to render civil war inevitable, I am ready at all times to carry out whatever orders I may receive from the honorable Secretary of the Navy.

Lincoln repeats his order that Fort Pickens be reinforced

When Lincoln learned that his command to reinforce Fort Pickens truce by surprise had not been carried out, on April 1st or 2nd, he sent the ship Atlantic with orders to reinforce Fort Pickens, again in secret without alerting the opposing side. The reinforcement of Fort Pickens did not occur until after Fort Sumter was attacked.

Meig's opinion

Army captain Montgomery Meigs had helped Lincoln and Seward plan this second attempt to reinforce Fort Pickens (third if you include Buchanan's earlier attempt that was stopped in the last minute in Pensacola Harbor by the January truce agreement). Meigs was on the Atlantic in New York Harbor about to head for Fort Pickens when he penned these words:

This is the beginning of the war which every statesman and soldier has foreseen since the passage of the South Carolina ordinance of secession.

Decisions in Washington

During March and April, Lincoln ignored the offer of the Confederate Commissioners to negotiate on about the public property and indebtedness. A fair division of the property would have been in the South's favor given the huge amount of territorial land purchased in part with the South's blood and money. Lincoln was no dummy. He didn't want a fair division of that land.

The third attempt to provoke war

Lincoln's cabinet and military advisers tell him Gustavus Fox's plan to send a relief fleet down to Charleston will result in a shooting war. General Scott says an expedition to relieve Sumter would need 25,000 men. The President later sent a force decidedly too small to force their way into the harbor.

Lincoln's and his agents' duplicity

Lincoln sent two representatives to Charleston within a few days of each other in late March. Fox was allowed to visit Anderson in Fort Sumter on the promise that his visit was for peaceful purposes. Once there he spoke with Anderson about a federal effort to send relief, not a peaceful purpose. Anderson "earnestly condemned Fox's plan." [Source: Maury Klein, Days of Defiance, page 341 paperback version]

Lincoln then sent his personal agent and former law partner Ward Lamon to Charleston. Lamon met with the governor and told him that Sumter would be evacuated. Lamon says in his book that he conveyed the message to the governor that Lincoln "had directed me to say." [Source: Recollections of Abraham Lincoln, by Ward Hill Lamon, page 74 in my paperback version] The governor told Lamon any US warships would be fired on if they entered the harbor.

Seward was all along conveying to the Confederate Commissioners through a Supreme Court Justice the impression that Sumter would be evacuated. The Confederate Commissioners later charged the Lincoln Administration with "gross perfidy" over Sumter when they left Washington.

The special session of the US Senate ended on March 28, 1861. It's very last act was to check with the president to see whether he had anything important to tell them. From the Congressional Globe:

Mr. Powell, from the committee appointed to wait on the President of the United States and notify him that unless he has some further communication to make, the Senate is ready to adjourn, reported that the committee had waited on the President, and been informed by him that he had no further communication to make to the Senate.

That same day the president cut preliminary orders to send the battlefleet to Charleston, an action that was widely perceived to likely end in a shooting war. Wasn’t that important enough to inform the Senate about?

Who could trust such a devious man? If he said he was only going to supply food, would you trust him not to inject troops into the fort in the same operation?

Anderson's opinion of the Sumter expedition

Here is Anderson's reaction to the news that an expedition would be sent to the fort:

I had the honor to receive by yesterday's mail the letter of the honorable Secretary of War, dated April 4, and confess that what he there states surprises me very greatly, following as it does and contradicting so positively the assurance Mr. Crawford telegraphed he was authorized to make. I trust that this matter will be at once put in a correct light, as a movement made now, when the South has been erroneously informed that none such will be attempted, would produce most disastrous results throughout our country.

It is, of course, now too late for me to give any advice in reference to the proposed scheme of Captain Fox. I fear that its result cannot fail to be disastrous to all concerned. ...

... I ought to have been informed that this expedition was to come. Colonel Lamon's remark convinced me that the idea, merely hinted at to me by Captain Fox, would not be carried out. We shall strive to do our duty, though I frankly say that my heart is not in the war which I see is to be thus commenced. That God will still avert it, and cause us to resort to pacific measures to maintain our rights, is my ardent prayer.

Lincoln's opinion of the Sumter expedition's failure

After the Sumter expedition failed, Lincoln consoles Gustavus Fox saying basically the mission accomplished what we wanted [Link].

You and I both anticipated that the cause of the country would be advanced by making the attempt to provision Fort-Sumpter, even if it should fail; and it is no small consolation now to feel that our anticipation is justified by the result.

The result, of course, was war. Lincoln accomplished his goal.