[ScaniaBoy]

Any recent polls?

[mnehring]

No big ones that I’m aware of. Texas had early voting last week and a lot of polls stop or pull back while the voting is going on. The last one I know if is Rasmussen from back on the 24th.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/election_2010_texas_republican_primary_for_governor

This one has Perry leading 48% to KBH @ 27% and Medina at 16%.

This shows momentum for Perry. Early February, they had him at 44% to KBH @ 29%

[deport]

RCP has the avg of the latest polls about

45% -- Perry
29% -- Hutchison
19% -- Medina
with the spread under 20% in favor of Perry.

Turnout may be the most important factor in determining if a runoff will be required. I believe a low turnout favors Perry but a large turnout with a lot of Medina votes may force a runoff. Historially the Gov. primary is under 700,000 votes. In 2006 it was 655,000. Early Voting in the largest 15 counties has produced over 300,000 votes so far. That could well indicate a large turnout. We'll see in a few hours.