I’ve come to look at the stock market as an entity unto itself, a game that is subject to the reality its players impart upon it, like monopoly, except on occasions, the real world crashes the party, like the cat jumping onto the board and making a mess if everything.
Keynes, although not much of an economist, was a good stock picker. He explained that the stock market was a beauty contest where the idea was not to pick the prettiest girl, but rather to pick the girl that everyone else thinks is the prettiest.