“That’s pretty much the opinion of the public back in 1859 about the potential success of the Republican candidate from Illinois. “
Or 1979 about the guy from California.
I believe Ron Reagan had far more going for him than Lincoln had at the time. Except for his stint in Congress, Lincoln had failed more than once to gain public office, both locally and nationally. In addition, he was far less 'properly' educated than many in the political class of his day, and was an unknown entity to much of the public.
It wasn't until the Lincoln-Douglas debates that he gained national notice. Yet, what really gained him the office was the fractional situation of the democrat party, and the issue of slavery in the election.