Posted on 01/31/2010 8:56:11 AM PST by DogByte6RER
Blue California may turn red
Low turnout of Latinos, other minorities could defeat Democrats
By Tony Castro, Staff Writer
01/30/2010
Voter apathy among Latinos and other minority voters threatens to turn traditionally blue state California into another Massachusetts-like shocker in this year's midterm elections, political experts are warning. The importance of the turnout among Latinos and other minorities, according to several political consultants and strategists, underscores the tenuous position of statewide Democratic candidates in a new Field Poll showing them in trouble with white voters.
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer trailed Republican challenger Tom Campbell, 46 percent to 43 percent among white voters but leads him by 10 points overall because of Boxer's 74-point advantage among African-Americans and 36-point advantage among Latinos.
In the gubernatorial race, likely nominee Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown - the former two-term Democratic governor and current attorney general - holds only a 1-point lead over Republican businesswoman Meg Whitman among white voters but leads by 10 points overall thanks to a 69-point advantage among African-Americans and 23 points among Latinos.
A low Latino and minority voter turnout could doom the Boxer and Brown campaigns, said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo.
"Short of reaching out to Latinos and the ethnic population, the only real hope for Republicans statewide is that (minorities) not show up to vote," DiCamillo said.
"In a low-turnout election, the impact of ethnic minority voters becomes less, and (Republicans) have to hope for a low-turnout election - the lower the better."
A spokesman for Brown said it was premature to speculate on how his campaign would get out the minority vote until he officially announces his candidacy.
"I think it's fair to say that Jerry has always been committed to diverse voices and expect that to continue regardless of what he decides to do," said spokesman Sterling Clifford.
Republicans, though, have recently benefited from voter apathy among minorities, winning gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey last fall that were decided by a low ethnic voter turnout, according to Dan Schnur, a former Republican strategist who directs the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.
"The challenge for Democrats with Latino, African-American and other ethnic voters is not necessarily in winning their support but in getting them to turn out in high numbers," Schnur said, "and this is especially a challenge for Democrats in nonpresidential elections."
Brent Lowder, chief operating officer of the California Republican Party, said the GOP believes it has a unique opportunity in the 2010 elections in part because of voter backlash against Democratic leadership but also because of Democrat troubles among white voters.
"I don't know that we're going to be changing our tactics specifically knowing they may be weak with white voters," Lowder said, "but it's definitely an advantage (to us) because in low turnouts Republicans traditionally do better because our voters usually do better in going to the polls."
Historically, voter turnout as a whole is lower in midterm elections from presidential election years - down almost 20 percent in 2006 from 2004 and more than 20 percent in 2002 from 2000 both in California and nationwide.
Scared and jittery In 2008, for the first time in recent history, Latinos outperformed their percentage of the voting eligible population in the California Democratic primary. Latino turnout in that election was 29 percent of the total vote while only making up 22 percent of the voting eligible population in California. But that is a level that no one expects to be met again this year.
"Are they likely to turn out in levels as low in elections before 2008? Yes, that's a possibility and (it's) potentially very harmful for statewide Democratic candidates," said Andre Pineda, a Pasadena-based political strategist who polled Latinos for Barack Obama's presidential campaign.
Jose Sandoval, president of the Young Latino Democrats of the San Fernando Valley, said there is realistic apprehension about a repeat of the Massachusetts upset in California - and that a low turnout among Hispanic voters could fuel it.
"We're scared, and jittery that this could happen in California, and we've got to make sure we get a strong turnout, which I know is always hard to do in a midyear (election)," said Sandoval. "We're in a panic mode as far as we're concerned."
About two-thirds of California's registered voters are white non-Hispanic, 21 percent are Latino, 8.2 percent are Asian or other ethnicity and 5.8 percent are black, according to the Field Poll.
But Latino and African-American voters are registered as Democrats in overwhelming numbers and can spell disaster for Democrats or liberal causes when they break from traditional voting patterns.
An example was in 2008, when Latinos and African-Americans heavily supported Barack Obama's presidential candidacy in the California general election but then voted in large numbers for passage of Prop. 8, the ballot measure outlawing gay marriage.
Gay issue may be factor Exit polls showed that 70 percent of black voters and a majority of Latinos voters voted yes on Proposition 8. In this year's general election, on top of a possible voter turnout drop-off, Latinos and African-Americans could possibly pose trouble for Democratic candidates should Proposition 8, which is currently in the courts, wind up back on the ballot in some form, according to Jorge Garcia, a Chicano Studies professor at California State University, Northridge.
It would depend on how successful Republicans are in closely associating the gay marriage issue with the Democratic candidates, Garcia said.
"Cutting issues like gay marriage, if they're in the news, could favor the Republicans," said Garcia. "But there's always immigration - that's an issue cutting the other way."
The Field Poll was conducted in six languages across California's major ethnic communities, including English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Korean and Vietnamese.
Further breakdowns of the Field Poll were analyzed by San Francisco-based New America Media, a coalition of ethnic news organizations.
Under NAM's analysis, Boxer also led Campbell by 28 percent among Chinese voters, 10 percent among Korean voters and 19 percent among Vietnamese voters, although high numbers of undecided voters among the Asian electorate make those results less conclusive.
Brown also held a 20-point advantage among Chinese voters, a 6 percent advantage among Korean voters, and an 18 percent lead among Vietnamese voters, though about half of Asian voters say they are still undecided.
"Clearly, the changing demography is why California has become such a blue state it is," said the Field Poll's DiCamillo. "The number of ethnic voters becomes larger every election year, and they tend to vote Democratic.
"Republicans, unless they're going to change their strategy and go after the ethnic vote, have to hope for low turnout election, and that doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me."
Will it help California to go red? No.
A Republican from California is like a Conservative from France.
The people are becoming aware as the Communists are exposed. They really did not know who these people were.
Yep! It can be done.
I would like to see Babs Boxer kicked out of the Senate though....
Of course those who DO turn out vote a dozen times each. And some might even be CITIZENS! Of the US, no less!
I like this idea.
1) I think the Republicans should make a play for the whole West
2) We have been defending places in Ga, Al, Tx, Mt. Now lets make them defend NJ, Ma, Ca, NY
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus
...low turnout is wishful thinking...it’s the job of community organizers to get the underclass to the polls...Federal money given to ACORN and other groups pays for it...Obama will make sure it continues.
This could be bad.
The only fix for California would be so painful the people would not tolerate it.
To turn “red” after the “blues” drove the state to the “too late” point would enable the “blues” to blame the “reds” when it finally collapses.
It’s funny. For decades the nation has worried about an earthquake sheering California down the coast and dropping a third of it into the Pacific.
Who could have imagined it would be falling over the edge by something so simple and intangible as spending?
Jerry Brown, what a friggin’ joke.
California used to be Republican, and it will be again. Because — the libs have had their foot on the throttle. It’s been Full Speed Ahead, spending like crazed fools. We the People are not happy... with those who work FOR us.
One thing that always puzzled me about CA is that the voters would vote down liberal propositions, while voting overwhelmingly for the most liberal candidates on the ballot—the candidates who would get into office and work to reverse the outcome of the proposition. “Gay marriage” is an example of this: rejected by the people, but pushed by the politicians the people voted for.
Any more, I’m wondering if it’s worth retaining my CA residency while in the military... seems CA is still heading full speed in the wrong direction.
If the Republicans, idiots that they usually are, could simply understand that they don’t have to “go after the ethnic vote” - all they have to do is return to core conservative principles (e.g fire all RINOs). Most immigrants from ALL ethnic backgrounds came to the US because it represented OPPORTUNITY!
Republicans need to explain to them what conservative values really are: personal liberty, lower taxes, security through strength, and less governmental intervention in their lives. They came here to build a better life for themselves and their families - and we need to help them understand that conservativism and free enterprise are the way to achieve their goals.
But to be able to do that, the Republican party needs to tear up it’s “big tent” ideas of being “Democrat Lite” and get it’s own act together. Get rid of RINOs!
Laughable, next we will hear that the likes of Massachusetts is represented my Republicans or something crazy like that.
all this turnover means really is a dilution of conservatism in the GOP
mark my words
Excuse me? That would be Senator Babs Boxer.
that is not fair....the planets aligned for Scott Brown
no way does a conservative win in Kali...maybe a GOPer but it’ll have to be someone like Arnold
Don’t go counting chickens, just yet...
Democrats fully intend to gin up the Hispanics to come out in droves to vote against us “Racist Republicans” with Immigration Reform/Amnesty this summer.
It’s been in the works since at least early summer of 2009. They KNOW it’s what gave them control of congress in 2007, and they think it can be used to blunt this year’s anti-Obama wave...
I would like to see Babs Boxer kicked out of the Senate though....Ditto, and send her back to Brooklyn where she belongs.
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