However,
I do suspect that things are going to be compressed into a much shorter time . . . and . . . sadly for millions . . . much more dramatic than your scenarios.
I hope I’m wrong and you are right.
I also neglected to mention (thought about it, got distracted and forgot) the recent fly in the ointment, which consists of India’s and China’s joint repudiation of carbon caps and other nonsense at the Copenhagen conference. Israel has resold some US military technology to China in the past, and all things considered, they have more in common with each other than with the crazy Muzzie despotates and terrorist groups. It can’t be hopeful to China that its former ally, Pakistan, is disintegrating. Pakistan represented one of the few successes China had in trying to break the Soviet policy of containment (analogous to US policy toward the USSR) of China, and rapprochement with India will probably be the big story, rather than an Iranian-Indian deal.