Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Lovely-Day-For-A-Guinness; All

This anecdotal evidence of high turnout could be bad for Brown....but possibly good if Coakley has pissed off enough people.

This is an interesting point that should be taken into consideration:

“If significant, correlated errors in the polling occur, it is most likely to be the result of response bias, owing to the substantially greater enthusiasm of Scott Brown voters, who may be more willing to answer a pollster’s phone call after having been besieged by calls from both campaigns over the past several days. Some of the pollsters’ findings, like a mid-40s approval rating for Obama among ‘likely’ voters, are hard to reconcile with the turnouts in New Jersey or Virginia, with evidence from national polling trends, or with anecdotal reports of potentially very high turnout. A variety of factors, ranging from the increasing use of IVR polls and short sampling periods, to the unusual partisan composition of the Massachusetts electorate (which is plurality independent), to the generally inexperienced polling firms which have surveyed the state, could make these effects more likely.”

Note....this analyst still believes Brown will win.


89 posted on 01/19/2010 6:04:26 AM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies ]


To: rwfromkansas
Scott Brown voters, who may be more willing to answer a pollster’s phone call after having been besieged by calls from both campaigns over the past several days

Highly speculative! I'm an enthusiastic Brown voter and I've just been letting all calls go to voicemail. My sister (likewise) finally did that after answering every time but explaining she didn't respond to political calls or polls.

200 posted on 01/19/2010 6:59:10 AM PST by maryz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 89 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson