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There is an effected population of three million people. There are no utilities, food distribution, medical care, burial services and road access. Transportation was marginal prior to the quake. Google Earth Port-au-Prince and look closely at the satellite images. The Government institutions (as corrupt as they were) are destroyed. The UN facilities are in shambles. Finally, there is no central order left to prevent anarchy and enforce a degree of order. The magic 72 hours are up.

This is an incredibly poor population, living a marginal day to day existence prior to the quake. After the quake even their marginal and fragile lifelines were erased. The port is destroyed. Their homes and markets are destroyed. Their roads are clogged. No government has been able to model a system to replace existing distribution networks after a disaster. Supermarkets, banks, pharmacies, clinics, schools, municipal governments have always been the only efficient provider and distributor of goods and services.

I get furious at the media talking heads who are spouting off that their is no relief on the ground. Not only are they stupid and lack imagination, but they do a terrible disservice to those that are rushing to remote island nation whose only lifeline is an airport with a working runway. I knew from the first reports that this was TEOTWAWKI for Haiti. There was no way in 72 hours to get the required services distributed on the ground. Think about it. There is just one Airport with one runway. The minimum water requirements will be at least one gallon for every man, women, and child. This works out to 12,000 tons of water a day. For food at a minimum of 1000 calories (barely survival) they will need 750 tons a day. The are going to need at least 250,000 tents and probably more if the aftershocks continue. Fuel, medical care, medications, clothes, tools, shoes (look at all the cut feet from debris), bedding and sanitation. Leaving aside for now all the dead bodies, how are they going to effectively maintain a pipeline and distribute these supplies on a daily basis? They are not going to be able to.

This is just the beginning of hell there. How do you retrieve and bury so many dead? Where do you bury them? Assume 100,000, though I believe the number is going to be much greater once disease, violence, and starvation sets in. Leaving aside all the raw sewage, the flies will begin to be a problem. Cholera will kill many more. Violence will begin to break out as gangs form and begin to raid locally at first and city wide later. This in itself will further disrupt any recovery or relief effort.

Finally throw in the culture of dependency. Is anyone surprised that they are setting up road blocks with corpses?

In the US FEMA has pushed for 72 hour kits. They have since begun to expand this to 7-day kits. Why? They learned after Katrina that there is no way relief can be provided in the first 72 hours. This is in the United States with the best highway and distribution system in the world. Most Americans could afford these preparations, but how many have actually done it? My answer is just a small percentage. One week is for a localized natural disaster and does not include preparations for far more disruptive events.

In Haiti this is a far more disruptive event. People need to shut the media up from pontificating on the lack of aid distribution. People need to accept this is just the beginning of the horrors. The assistance must be rational and not clouded by emotionally driven detours.

Just my two cents and rant. Thank you.

Excellent and well-reasoned rant.

My heart and my prayers go out to those poor people and to the relief workers.

This is just the beginning of hell there. How do you retrieve and bury so many dead? Where do you bury them

They'll need to mass burn the victims they retrieve...For their own protection.

Tragic and true.

I think the only effective way to deal with this will be truly massive refugee camps, on a scale not before seen, somewhere in the vicinity of the seaport. People will need to make their way to the refugee camps.

The very first step required is for the US navy facilities engineering command to install an artificial dock structure at the collapsed port facility, large enough to accomodate large cargo ships.

Seabees and Army Engineers will need to construct the giant refugee camps and build a transportation link to the port facility.

Teams of Marines and Corpsmen and any Army paratroopers not overseas will need to establish posts across the city and provide security and assist in bringing the population to the refugee camps.

The refugee camps themselves will probably be run under the auspices of the UN.

Agreed 110%. (Are you in the geotechnical field?) I try to tell folks around here the same thing.

You know those shows about “Apocalypse Earth” on the History channel where you think that can’t happen here in the U.S.? It can, and someday will.

I’m in the Seattle area where bridges are essential. It will be many days before everyone can be helped after the “Big One” happens here.

Thank goodness new analysis has come up with new plans. It used to be that Portland would help Seattle and vice-versa. Now they figure north-south travel between Portland-Seattle-Vancouver would be severely disrupted. Now it will be places like Spokane and Boise to supply aid.

Is anyone surprised that they are setting up road blocks with corpses?

Thanks for your post which explicates why they are blocking the roads, PA Engineer.

It is to keep the "technicals" (those small trucks with gunmen) OUT.

This is what many on FR have tried to explain for years, that in a scenario where it all goes to hell, thugs will leave their own environs and go looking for food, ammo, and "stuff" to loot.

These people are trying to keep the Bad Guys out of their neighborhood.