Yeah, I think your point is a flaw in his argument. Ben Nelson, Lincoln, etal only want to vote for this IF it passes. If it is going to fail, then Ben Nelson and Lincoln at a minimum will vote no. Heck Reid might vote no to try to save his neck, if it is going down.
I think it will be an amazing vote for both the house and the senate.
In my opinion, there are three possible outcomes. First, everything bogs down just as the article states, to such a degree that no one can agree on what should be in the bill. Cadillac tax or not, abortion or not, etc. until it becomes clear no vote will ever be held. Then congress people can return to their home states and say, we didn’t do this. Of course in blue states this will be held against them.
Second possibility, enough compromises are made so that it passes both houses just barely. For the reasons given in the article, I think this is growing less and less likely.
The third more likely scenario is enough is worked out to get close, but no bill can be cobbled together to get both houses to vote for it to pass. In other words it misses by a few house votes and one or two senate votes, especially if Brown wins in Mass. At that point, everyone wants a revote and many like Nelson, Landrieu, et. al. vote no to have it on their recored that they opposed it. It will be astonishing to see everyone pile on in opposition so they can tell their constituents, I never voted for this!