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A free and peaceful country will be a difficult ride for what is now Iran, and that country, as such, might not survive intact.

http://lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/iran_ethnoreligious_distribution_2004.jpg

(CIA Factbook data)

Population: 66,429,284

Persian 51%, Azeri 24%, Gilaki and Mazandarani 8%, Kurd 7%, Arab 3%, Lur 2%, Baloch 2%, Turkmen 2%, other 1%.

Of these, the problematic ethnic minorities are first, the Iranian Kurds, adjacent to Iraqi Kurdistan, who are itching to form a “Greater Kurdistan”, which would also want to tear a chunk out of both Syria and Turkey. This even makes the Turks nervous, so it is a serious possibility. Iraqi Kurdistan is currently undergoing major economic growth, which could pay for it.

Second are the Balochs, whose territory is divided between Iran and Persia, and are a pain in the rear end to both. Balochistan is also mineral rich, and Pakistani Balochistan has the strategic port of Gwadar. So it would not be unthinkable that Pakistan might make a grab for Iranian Balochistan if the opportunity presented itself.

Third is Iranian Arab Khuzestan. This is closer to Iraq, ethnically similar, and has most of Iran’s oil, as well as its strategic location on the Persian Gulf. The rest of the world would be more than happy for it to be part of a stable Iraq, than a restive Iran.

Then, just looking at Persia proper, as a subset of Iran, it also has its fair share of bitter schisms. The upper classes, the “old money”, used to be Zoroastrians, not Muslims, and the Muslims have been persecuting the hell out of them, and they want payback, and likely some still have the money to pay for it.

Then, among the Muslims, the split between the middle and upper classes, who are educated and sophisticated, and the working classes is pretty intense. The middle classes revel in Europeanism and European modernity, fashion and entertainment. And the working classes resent this and enjoy seeing it taken away from them.

Then there are some wild cards. For example, the parliament has a group of physicists, who are also religious extremists. The Mullahs and the Republican Guards have become little more than a criminal gang looting the country, except for Nutjob, whose little band of true believers want to destroy the world starting with Iran.

Put it all together, and it’s anybody’s guess what will happen. After the revolution, I remember Iranians flooding a major university here, then subdividing into a dozen bitter factions. Maintaining that much argument between themselves, on the far side of the world, takes a lot of divisiveness that does not bode well for Iran.