Instead of moving house districts and Senate seats into the blue column we might find just the opposite occurring with the extraordinary growth of the Latin American demographic. These people now constitute at least 14% of the national population and they are voting more than 70% Democrat. I would wager the huge proportion of the changes recounted in this article are Latinos, Caribbean blacks and Africans who are statistically unlikely to vote our way.
The history of in floods of immigrants dating back to the postbellum era clearly show that the newcomers do not vote conservative. Look at the changes in New Jersey in the last 20 years and one can easily cite California, Washington and Oregon as obvious examples. I am suspicious that the author is even intentionally misleading when he says:
Consider Florida, which has gained 10 electoral votes since 1980 and also become more Republican.
Florida did not flip because of the influx of New Yorkers to Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach counties, Florida became more Republican because the South swung over to the Republican side from the side of darkness. Moreover, Florida is always in danger of slipping into the red column because of the I- four corridor combined with the above mentioned three counties. These emigrants have created in Florida a suburb of New York City which votes that way. Likewise, Northern Virginia has witnessed an influx of emigrants and immigrants and neither class has shown itself disposed to vote conservative.
In short, I think the article is virtually worthless as a predictor absent a statistical breakdown of the ethnicity of every district.
Best personal wishes to you for a happy new year and to all FReepers as well.
