This is a pretty dumb question. There are too many scenarios to cover at this stage:
1) Palin runs as a conservative, GOP selects a RINO before Super Tuesday and
a) Palin gives up vowing to return in 2016
b) Palin goes 3rd party after the start of primary season
2) Palin drifts away from conservatism to chase after the mythical “independent swing-voter moderate”
3) Palin is driven away from the GOP early enough to force her to go 3rd party before the primaries and
a) GOP runs a conservative
b) GOP runs a RINO
4) Palin decides to become a talk show host and drive the discussion and form policy
...and those are just the first scenarios to pop into my head.
We’re all tired of having our candidate “selected” by the left-wing media and a party that has lost its soul before we even get to vote in the primary, so let’s see who rises to the top before we start annointing them.
I hate to point out the obvious, but the decline in Obama's poll numbers aren't from the conservatives or liberals abandoning him - it's the exodus of independents that's doing the damage right now - almost a 50% swing, to the negative, in independents.