Your number is in the ballpark and supported by the last 20 years of unemployment claims and graphs of the four-week moving average of initial claims. No doubt about that.
We still do not see the long-term (> 6 months or 26 weeks) unemployment trendline coming down, tho.
There is HUGE slack in the labor force. Employers can go forward without hiring two+ million workers simply by pulling back in part-timed labor to full-time, and bringing furloughed workers back on to active employment.
The slack in the labor force is going to be the biggest impediment to creating “new jobs” going foward.
That is one reason there won't be a recovery. Huge taxes on the horizon is another. And, despite the beliefs of many in the business community, a socialist government won't really transfer many of their costs to elsewhere.
Not so. There are many workers who will be content to receive the government handouts once health care is added. Think of it. Welfare payments, food stamps, and health care. That will certainly keep the current welfare population on welfare, and it will seduce a good many more to enter on that lifestyle. In a sense, it's a rational conclusion.
In the long run, that falls back on the producers to carry the extra load. More of them will fail. Fewer of them will survive to carry a greater load. Repeat.
Socialism dooms everyone to failure or to eventual membership in the regime, and Mugabe proves that even they are pitiful creatures.