In a 3 way race, where no one has ever polled even close to 45% before (best Scozzafava ever did beforeeven when she was in the lead, was around 35%), the answer is yes.
Not doubting he’ll win, but is he polling 45% in a 2-way, or a 3-way before DS dropped out?
Don’t forget that probably 5-10% are “undecided”