That district had been Republican going back to 1875 up until 1999. These are the type of districts that the GOP needs to pick off, because there’s no way places like that can be philisophically closer to Pelosi than to Palin.
Rose probably represents the best chance to regain the seat the GOP has ever had. He has the reputation and name recognition to attract the Republicans and independents that have gotten Moore double digit wins in the last two races. But he is what most people would classify as a RINO - a fiscal conservative/social moderate. Lightner is the far more conservative of the two. But she wouldn’t attract the independents or the moderate Republicans, and that plays to Moore’s advantage. The unknown in all this is how much Moore’s support of Obama initiatives like Cap and Trade, Health Care, and Unions will hurt him. Those aren’t popular stands around here.
It probably IS closer to Palin than Pelosi - but not by much. KS-3 is the quintessential moderate dictrict. Even when it was GOP back in the 1980's and 1990's, it was represented by people like Jan Meyers, who was a RINO in the mold of Olympia Snowe and Sue Collins. The district has both the Kansas side of the KC Metro area as well as Lawrence (where KU is at) in it, so that counterbalances the farm country in between.