The Davies J-Curve is an uncanny way of perceiving social movements: they are the result of empowerment rather than deprivation. Those supressed have no power to weild; as power is gained, impatience for desired outcomes increases, and power is wielded to obtain it. The Civil Rights movement was just so.
I’d say that any J-Curve we might be heading into now with the black community will be one with a conservative bent: expectations for the Obama presidency flatly and already fly far above reality, so whatever of his agenda he passes will not meet those expectations, and the J-Curve gap will explode.
Just think about the black middle and upper classes, and how much their daily expectations diverge from the socialist outcomes Obama is pushing. They will no more like the higher taxes, crappy health services, and flat or inflationary economy that Obama is pushing than conservatives.
Its ironic because whites for the past 40 years have had reduced expectations with the onslaught of quotas, affirmative action, and the belittling of western civilization in general.
The next ten years will be interesting.