Q+A-China's complex relationship with Myanmar

Reuters ^ | Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:30am EDT | Ben Blanchard

[Pan_Yan]

BEIJING, Aug 28 (Reuters) -

[SNIP]

WHY IS CHINA UNWILLING TO CRITICISE MYANMAR?

China has a longstanding policy of non-interference in other countries' affairs, especially over human rights issues, in part because it does not want the United States and Europe criticising Beijing's own record. [ID:nBKK197002]

Beyond that, China's overriding concern is a stable Myanmar. Drugs and HIV/AIDS pour across the border into the southwestern province of Yunnan and China is desperate to control that flow. Any action that might place unbearable pressure on the generals and force a government collapse could have dire consequences for China. Ethnic minorities in Myanmar, which have in some cases waged long-running insurgencies, could then set up de facto states along the Chinese border and their primary income would likely come from drugs.

China also argues that Myanmar is no threat to international peace and warrants no U.N. Security Council involvement, unlike North Korea and its nuclear programme.

[SNIP]

[Pan_Yan]

A good article for those of us who have not kept up on South East Asia.

[Andy from Beaverton]

Just watched BurmaVJ. I really feel for these people after seeing it. Burma VJ: Reporter i et lukket land (2008)

[dila813]

We are broke, bring them home and lets let the drugs eat the libs alive.

Let them have their freaking day of drugs and commit suicide. I really don’t think conservatives can save them anymore, part of our fault was thinking we could. This cancer has been taking over the US and we need to allow them to destroy themselves throughly and stop standing in their way.

[Pan_Yan]

I have no idea what you are talking about.

[dila813]

That makes two of us

[dila813]

weird, looks like a fr error, post went to the wrong thread.

[Zhang Fei]

In 2007, China's Foreign Ministry published an unflattering account of Myanmar's new jungle capital Naypyidaw, expressing surprise that this poor country would consider such an expensive move and not even tell supposed friend Beijing first.

We all like to think our allies are faithless, and our adversaries' allies are marching in lockstep with them. In reality, allies - no matter whose allies - will always be there for you when they need you.

[Pan_Yan]

What I can’t figure out is who needs who more, and what could tip the balance in this situation. To be honest I didn’t even know Burma had a new name until a couple of years ago. Now I see it as another potential hot spot that could affect an entire region. Two in fact, since they border India on the west.

[Zhang Fei]

Now I see it as another potential hot spot that could affect an entire region.

It would be amusing if China invades the Kokang state and the West and India jump in on the Burmese government's side, after having levied all kinds of sanctions on the Burmese government for human rights violations.

I don't think China has any good options. even if it wants to protect its ethnic brethren. An invasion and occupation of the state (perhaps followed by annexation) would be expensive and raise everyone's hackles*, in the region and around the world. A punitive strike followed by withdrawal would probably lead Burma to expel the rest of the ethnic Chinese in-country, much like what happened after the Chinese punitive expedition into Vietnam.

* It would probably be good for US arms exports to the region, not to mention improve our ties to countries in the region, with the exception of China.