I always hear that but I think the most important numbers come from the opinion of the true base of the candidate. Bush’s poll numbers began to sink when his base turned against him for implementing socialist policies. If Obama can turn his base against him he won’t be re-elected.
But the leftwing base is much less independent than the conservative base. The lefties may become disenchanted, but they will never vote anything but rat. That’s why the Green party has never gotten a toe-hold.
I still think it’s the independents that bear the most watching.
Exactly....Bush would have never dropped so far if he hadn’t gone against his base on Amnesty. He created a situation where all sides of the political spectrum were disapproving of him for different reasons.